Let us open with an all-clear siren: No war is expected in the near future. The security establishment has no such information, there is no expectation of the sort, and there is no point of view that even hints that it has come up for discussion. All we can say for sure is that there has been a strategic shift in the Middle East. Until a year ago, recently ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was our rock, but today Egypt is a mystery. If Syrian President Bashar Assad was once a predictable and level-headed enemy, Syria after him will be an island of uncertainty. If we also bring Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah into the picture and now add Turkey to that, we are left with more question marks than exclamation points. From the Israel Defense Forces point of view, the immediate significance is like a basic infantry exercise: Take cover. Be cautious about any major changes, adventures and uncalculated risks. Thus, the General Staffs concern that a significant security budget cut to appease the demands of tent protesters on Rothschild Boulevard is likely to create a large hole in the armys readiness for war. Readiness, it should be noted, not preparations, because war is not on the agenda, in case anyone tries to accuse Homefront Commander Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg of using scare tactics in an anti-social protest exercise. Eisenbergs statements on Monday night at the Institute for National Security Studies were not an anti-protest tactic. Eisenberg tried to say that the dangers have grown, for Israel in general and especially for the homefront, and that we need to be ready -- the IDF in general and homefront defense units in general. But Eisenberg is, in his own words, a rookie in the minefield of language. He spoke as if he were briefing a group of reserve soldiers in his command and not a civilian population and its journalists. When he understood what he had said, it was already too late to put the released forces back in their box. It is safe to assume that today, one of the security establishment heads will calm us down and put things in perspective. Israel has enough worries without the panic of general war with potential use of weapons of mass destruction. There is no reason at all why citizens and investors should live in the shadow of a threat that, while real, is distant and has a low probability of actually eventuating. One can assume that Eisenberg will not be given another opportunity to make statements in the near future, but he is given the chance, he might phrase his statements differently, and say, more or less, this: We need to be ready, but you can relax. There is no need to open the bomb shelters.
