This coming Hanukkah will mark three years since Israel launched Operation Cast Lead, its offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israeli troops were required to wage battle in one of the most crowded places on Earth, in the face of an enemy that operated out of heavily populated areas while launching high-trajectory rockets at Israeli civilians. In recent years, we've seen non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah gain strength, making high trajectory weapons all the more dangerous by every parameter. The number of rockets has increased, their range has increased, and they are capable of inflicting greater damage and ultimately, hitting with increased precision. In light of this growing threat, the Israel Defense Forces must prepare an appropriate response to the possibility of violent conflict. Taking into account the fact that no military solution can eliminate the threat entirely, and in the absence of a diplomatic solution, the IDF's prepared response should include two basic components: restoring deterrence and minimizing damage. Israel's deterrence took a hit following Operation Cast Lead. By restoring its deterrence Israel could delay the next war by several years. This can be achieved by dealing a debilitating blow, thus forcing the enemy to engage in a long rehabilitation process. Get the Israel Hayom newsletter sent to your mailbox! The second component can be achieved by neutralizing rocket launch sites rapidly and forcefully while improving our own passive and active defenses -- our ability to absorb damage as well as to make a rapid civilian recovery. Should Israel be faced with conflict along either its northern or southern border, it will be forced to fire weapons and deploy troops in crowded areas. Therefore, the IDF must adopt a strategy that will enable maximum damage with minimum civilian casualties. One of the ways to achieve this objective is to evacuate civilian populations from war zones. Operation Cast Lead clearly demonstrated the IDF's three-step method. First, targets that pose immediate threats to Israeli civilians are hit regardless of civilian casualties, then the civilian population is asked to evacuate the area for its own protection, and only then are large-scale offensives staged. In this way, hopefully, the number of civilian casualties can be kept to a minimum. However, rapid and effective evacuation is a significant challenge. Several months ago, the Washington Post published an Israeli map of the many villages in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah secretly stores weapons. By failing to take any action, the Lebanese government is complicit in allowing military posts in civilian territories. The international community should be very concerned. The Lebanese government must be forced to take responsibility, to ensure that its citizens, uninvolved in the fighting, are evacuated from these potential war zones. In addition, the population must be coached ahead of time to prepare for the eventuality of a war. A detailed description of the evacuation process must be made available to the public, on an Arabic-language website or in a number of other ways. This, alongside pressure on the Lebanese government, could allow international bodies to plan and assist in the evacuation. Hezbollah could potentially try to undermine such a process, but on the whole, the involvement of the civilian population in the evacuation and the discussion of the topic in every international forum will certainly minimize the number of civilian casualties and grant international legitimacy to Israeli military maneuvers. The writer is Dr. Col (res.) Gabi Siboni, head of the Military and Strategic Affairs Program at the Institute for National Security Studies. This article was written ahead of the INSS conference on the challenges of urban warfare in heavily populated areas.
Like our newsletter? 'Like' our Facebook page!