North Korea has had a civilian science and technology space program since the 1990s. For the third time, after two previous failures, North Korea attempted last week to launch a satellite for a 500 km (310.7 mile) orbital route. It was not a strategic missile, as the U.S. claimed; even the Iranian satellite launcher's imagination is limited. The failed launch took place under the eyes of international journalists invited especially for the launch at North Korea's new launching facility on its west coast. The intended route of the rocket was not supposed to pass over Japan; essentially, there was no way to intercept it. I am part of the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, which tracks North Korea's space program. Despite the failures, we have also watched the progress of their efforts over the years. North Korea's first attempt, Kwangmyongsong-1, was launched in 1998, in honor of the 50th anniversary of the country's establishment. The attempt failed, though through the years the regime has claimed that it was a success. In April, 2009, North Korea claimed that it launched Kwangmyongsong-2 into space, but Russia, the U.S. and South Korea have all claimed that this launch was also a failure. The third satellite was launched on a rocket that could carry 100 kg (220.5 lbs). This type of rocket has no military or intelligence capabilities, so its importance is merely a symbol of North Korea entering the prestigious "space club," in which there are only a few members, including Russia, the U.S., the EU, Japan, China, India, Israel and Iran. In contrast to other North Korean launch attempts, in which the launch was slated to pass over Japan and which caused an international storm, this time they decided to launch the rocket to the south. This choice prevents the launcher's flight path from going over any other countrys territory - an attempt to calm diplomatic flames. North Korea released a preview of the expected launch window and the areas in the sea where the two pieces of the launch mechanism would fall. North Korea set the launch date to honor its late founder, Kim Il Sung, two days before the 100th anniversary of his birth. It seems that the choice for the launch date had no dimension of defiance against the West, but rather that the rocket's development process reached the ready-to-launch stage. But they failed again anyway. It is doubtful that the North Korean satellite launcher has the potential to become an intercontinental strategic missile launcher. There are two main reasons for this: The cumbersome launch system is tower-based, which means it is very visible and involves lengthy preparations; and the low injection capacity of the launcher is not significant enough to carry with it any long-range missiles that could actually reach the U.S. But it is important to emphasize that any success in launching a satellite into orbit would be a step toward the possibility of building a strategic intercontinental missile in the future. The U.S. leads the hard line against North Korea on the current launch campaign. Official spokespersons presented the launch as a "provocation" and a gross violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions 1718 and 1748, which prohibit North Korea from having long-range ballistic missiles. These resolutions, however, do not specifically forbid satellite launches. The U.S. views the launch as a threat to regional security and as a violation of the last agreement signed between the U.S. and North Korea, that the latter receive food and other assistance from the U.S. in exchange for the cessation of its nuclear military programs. North Korea's launch failure is not only a failure for the closed country's self-image. The eyes of Tehran's missile experts were all turned toward Pyongyang. Iran and North Korea have a close relationship in the field of missile technology. Even more than that, Tehran is supposed to launch its Simorgh small-capacity orbital carrier rocket sometime this year. This launcher is very similar to North Korea's failed version. It is safe to assume that the failed launch will throw the Iranian space program for a loop, and significantly delay its next satellite launch, since the satellite is too heavy for the launcher that Iran already has. The writer is the head of Space Research Center, Fisher Institute for Air & Space Strategic Studies.
