The agreement struck between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to unite their respective parties, Likud and Yisrael Beytenu, ahead of the upcoming elections, was immediately described as a "political earthquake." Just like a physical earthquake, this political earthquake caused light and medium aftershocks that will continue to rattle the political seismograph until the Likud convention several days from now. Veteran Likud member and Improvement of Government Services Minister Michael Eitan is ideologically opposed to the merger. Many in the party are still waiting to hear what Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor has to say about it. On Saturday, Carmel Shama Hacohen, another Likud member, voiced opposition to the move. Now there is an initiative to hold a secret ballot at the upcoming Likud convention to approve or reject the union. Another option was raised this weekend: to postpone the decision by a week or 10 days to allow all involved the time needed to seriously consider their next steps. The move toward large political blocs is a welcome change. This maneuver will be even more positive if it forces the Center and Left to unite into a large bloc as well. But this would pose some serious questions: Can Labor Chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich and former Kadima Chairwoman Tzipi Livni two of the most prominent figures in the Center-Left work together? Which one would chair their joint list? Will political newcomer Yair Lapid be left out of this union? If so, this would signal to Netanyahu that if he is tasked with assembling a coalition, he will be able to count on the support of Lapid's Yesh Atid (There Is a Future) party, and will not be dependent on Shas. But the main problem and this is the true hot-button issue is that the Netanyahu-Lieberman deal has only increased former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's burning desire to re-enter the political ring. Olmert is the current idol of Likud opponents, but the moment he decides to run, a petition will be filed seeking moral turpitude for his conviction (which would prevent him from running for seven years). It would be especially difficult for the Center-Left bloc to place at its helm a man convicted of breach of trust and currently standing trial for accepting bribes. Such a move would have a boomerang effect. American political consultant Arthur Finkelstein is a terrific analyst. If he thinks that the Likud-Beytenu list will win 45 seats in the upcoming election, his projections should be taken seriously. But as of now, there is absolutely no indication that this is the case. It stands to reason that, as in previous political mergers, the joint list will win less than the 42 seats the parties collectively hold today. I'm basing this not on science or statistics, but on two individuals I know personally who were planning to vote for Likud, but now, post-merger, say they will vote for Shas and Labor respectively. You never know if they will stick to their plan, though. Some of the people who changed their minds at first, feeling alienated by the merger, may still go back and vote Likud. The question cannot be answered without precise measuring tools. The picture would be far clearer if Attorney-General Yehuda Weinstein was to expedite the decision, already made too late, on how he plans to progress with the criminal investigation into Lieberman's past. The attorney-general's dilly-dallying, which has been the object of ridicule over the last two years, is now causing serious harm to the political system. These days, the Likud leadership is seeing its political dream realized. Kadima, which tried to destroy Likud, is collapsing. The mass exodus of Kadima refugees necessitates a long, hard discussion on the meaning of this phenomenon within the framework of changing Israeli society. One after another, for all to see, the MKs who pledged their loyalty to the party that was supposed to exist for generations, are now fleeing this sinking ship. They don't care where they end up, as long as they get a personal life preserver. Everything is personal. But the heads of Likud are too preoccupied now to gloat.
