Faced with the Israeli delegation's tough stance in the Cairo negotiations, Hamas decided to violate a cease-fire for the 11th time during Operation Protective Edge. While Israel has been militarily ready for that possibility, it was doubly surprised when Hamas actually resumed fire, not only because Hamas so bluntly went back on its word to Egypt, but also because this time it skipped the usual prelude of firing mortar shells at the Gaza border area communities and targeted Beersheba directly. The rocket salvo on Jerusalem and Israel's central and coastal areas on Tuesday night reflected Hamas' motivation to drag Israel back into wide-scale fighting. One can learn of the projections for the near future from the directives reiterated by the Homefront Command, meaning intense fighting in Gaza is expected to resume and with it rocket fire on central Israel. This is why the military has ordered local authorities to open public bomb shelters again, and why it has instructed the residents of the southern communities to remain close to fortified areas. Anyone who thought the last few days of summer vacation would be quiet needs to think again. As things stand now, it is unlikely that southern Israel will welcome the new school year on time. Still, the Iron Dome is able to afford decision-makers the necessary leeway to avoid an unwanted adventure in Gaza. The intensity of Israel's response will be the result of several factors: from a security standpoint, it will depend on the number of rockets fired at Israel and whether or not we suffer casualties. From a diplomatic standpoint, it will depend on the international legitimacy lent to military action in Gaza and the pressure applied on Israel to resume negotiations. And from a political standpoint, it will depend on whether the prime minister and the defense minister can withstand the pressure from the cabinet, the Knesset and the public to launch a wide-scale operation in Gaza. As of Tuesday night, the decision was to resume the aerial campaign on terror targets in Gaza, with aim of pressuring Hamas by both directly targeting its assets and operatives, and by having the Palestinian population pressure its leaders to resume the cease-fire talks. If Israel feels it needs to increase the pressure on Hamas it may decide to include ground forces, which have remained deployed on the Gaza border since the IDF's counter-tunnel operation was completed. Israel has to be prepared for this scenario and not only from a military standpoint. Despite the recent breakdown in communications, it is imperative that Jerusalem maintain an open dialogue with Washington, to ascertain exactly how far the IDF can go. With all due respect to the Europeans, the majority of Israel's interests lie with the United States, as that is where the aid, the support and the "international diplomatic Iron Dome" come from. Between fighting the Islamic State group in Iraq and the riots in Ferguson, Missouri, the White House has its hands full right now, and Israel must be careful not to step into any diplomatic minefield. Israel must also coordinate its efforts with Egypt. Cairo has been able to mediate between Israel and Hamas in the past, mostly because it has been able to maintain its status as an impartial mediator, and its difficulties this time stem from the palpable animosity between President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi's regime and the Muslim Brotherhood's sister-organization in Gaza. Egypt is also concerned with ensuring that the masses do not take to the streets of Cairo over the fighting in Gaza -- a situation that may undermine the regime's direct interests and Israel's indirect ones. The military campaign must coincide with the efforts to resume the cease-fire talks, as it is highly likely that the international pressure to that effect will resume within days, if not hours. When this happens, both Israel and Hamas will resume negotiating the core issues that they were close to agreeing upon on Monday, or at the very least, they will be able to formulate an agreement that ends the hostilities. Cairo was hard at work on Tuesday trying to bridge the gaps between the parties on these issues, which include the crossings, the fishing zone and wage funds -- and later on, a seaport and exchange of remains and prisoners. Cairo has also busy trying to come up with alternative formulas to end the current round of violence, although as of Wednesday morning it seems Hamas and Israel have gone back to communicating through the familiar language of war.
