The Israeli general in charge of preparing the homefront for war and emergencies has come under intense criticism for a grim security assessment he delivered at an academic conference. GOC Homefront Command Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg said on Monday that the likelihood of a total, all-out war in the Middle East, with the possible use of weapons of mass destruction, had increased in light of the upheavals in the Arab world and the deterioration in Israel-Turkey relations. Speaking at a conference on homefront defense at Tel Aviv University's Institute of National Security Studies, Eisenberg provided an analysis of recent regional developments and their implications for Israel. "The revolutions and upsets in the Arab world, coupled with the deteriorating relations with Turkey, might lead to an all-out regional war," he said. The Arab Spring, the popular uprising that has swept through Arab states and led to the downfall of one of Israel's key regional allies, former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, has alarmed Israeli policymakers, who fear the wave of protests could threaten regional stability and lead to the rise of Islamist forces. While Arab leaders struggle to hold on to the old order, Turkey has been taking on a more active regional role, in what may be an attempt to reassert itself as a regional power. Ankara has recently recalled the Israeli ambassador to Israel and said it might pursue legal action against the Jewish state following Israel's refusal to apologize for the 2010 raid by Israeli naval commandos on a Turkish-led flotilla, which led to the deaths of nine Turkish nationals. "What is called the Arab Spring can become a radical Islamic winter, which increases the likelihood of an all-out regional war, and this might even involve weapons of mass destruction," Eisenberg said Monday. According to Eisenberg, terrorists in the Gaza Strip have recently acquired a new weapon, which they have already fired on Israeli communities in the south. The discovery of this weapon prompted authorities to instruct citizens to take cover in shelters that have double ceilings during the latest round of escalation, he said. He stopped short of elaborating on the nature of the weapon system. "The outcome of a future war will depend on the stamina of the homefront," he said. Defense Minister Ehud Barak poured cold water over Eisenberg's assessment, saying, "Our enemies will not dare use weapons of mass destruction against us." He said the defense establishment was seeing no regional mobilization for war against Israel. Top Israel Defense Forces officials were surprised by Eisenberg's comments on Monday. "It is unclear why he would raise this issue [of regional war] at this particular point in time and why he would comment on specific intelligence on certain weapon systems," they said. "There is no justification for heating up tensions or sowing fear among the public." In an interview with Israel Radio, the Director of Policy and Political-Military Affairs at the Defense Ministry, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Gilad, who has also served as head of military intelligence, dismissed Eisenberg's remarks as "too simplistic and incorrect." "Our security situation has never been better: There is no terrorism inside Israel, we have deterrence in the north and south, we are not facing a coalition of Arab armies and the regimes in the region are stable, although there are some processes underway that we must watch closely," he said. Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Shaul Mofaz (Kadima) was also quick to react. On Tuesday, he asked Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz whether Eisenberg's views were those of the army or his own. Mofaz said that Gantz had yet to comment on the matter. Vilnai, who also spoke at the conference, elaborated on the government's response to the threats on the homefront and commented on his newly created post. "The creation of the new Homefront Defense Ministry has been frustrated by internal politics, despite the importance attached to it," Vilnai said. The delay has compromised our ability to meet challenges, he conceded. This is the fourth year that Tel Aviv University has held the Preparedness of the Civilian Front for War conference. Speakers usually include high-profile defense figures. In Monday's conference, several speakers criticized the local authorities' lack of emergency preparedness in about 25 per cent of municipalities, first reported by Israel Hayom. This could compromise Israel's security in any violent confrontation, they warned. Eisenberg went on to discuss the threats facing Israel, saying Israel has to contend with threats on multiple fronts. These range from Gaza Strip and Iran to Syria and Egypt, adding that even Jordan's King Abdullah has had to contend with daunting challenges domestically. Israel must make every effort to keep the peace along the borders with these countries, Eisenberg said, adding that Israel is increasingly wary of the uncertainty in Egypt, particularly because it is unclear whether the central government in Cairo can exert its authority in the Sinai Peninsula alongside Israel in a way that would ensure it does not become an enclave of Islamic radicalism. "The Egyptian military has been overwhelmed, effectively losing its grip over the Sinai; what was once a manifestation of Egypt's strategic choice to maintain peace has now been supplanted by terrorism," Eisenberg said. Speaking on Syria, Eisenberg predicted president Assad's days in power were numbered due to the growing domestic unrest. As for Iran, Eisenberg reiterated the prevailing Israeli assessment that Iran still intends to pursue a military nuclear program, warning that Iran is in fact moving "full steam ahead" down that path.
Homefront Defense Minister Matan Vilnai defended Eisenberg, telling Army Radio that it was a good thing that generals chose to express themselves rather than keep silent. "It is better to be able to hear assessments and to react accordingly than to have all matters discussed behind closed doors like in bygone eras" he said.
