The most encouraging thing to come out of the defense budget debate, which ended on Monday, was that the Finance and Defense Ministries managed to behave like adults, for a change. There were no political spins, no knives and no dirty tricks. The debate was straightforward and efficient, and in the end, both sides announced that they supported the agreement that was reached (until next time).
Having said that, let us focus on the details. These reveal, once again, that the Israel Defense Forces is actually Israel's most powerful workers' union. Were any benefits cut? No. Were the terms of IDF pensions altered? No. Was the low retirement age increased? No. How simple: In the middle of the night, the IDF chief of staff announced that he and his senior officers would be willing to voluntarily accept a 1 percent pay cut if the top echelon of government workers would do the same. Wonder of wonders, not a single Finance Ministry employee jumped on that offer, and the proposal fell through. The result: The salaries and benefits granted to career soldiers remain untouched.
So what was cut? There was a certain, reasonable cut made to the defense budget, which concealed more than it revealed. The sides agreed that the debate would revolve around the 2012 defense budget of 54 billion shekels ($15 billion). It was agreed that 1.5 billion shekels ($420 million) would be cut from this sum this year, and another 3 billion shekels ($840 million) would be cut next year, and then the defense budget would enjoy a gradual budget increase until 2018, when the budget would reach a record 59 billion shekels ($16.5 billion).
Simple arithmetic teaches us that contrary to the official announcement on Monday, the defense budget wasn't actually cut by 3 billion shekels. In fact, it was actually increased by 2.5 billion shekels ($702 million).
But this agreement enables the Finance Ministry to launch its massive national budget cut plan with the knowledge that the IDF is doing its part. As far as the Defense Ministry is concerned, the defense budget remains reasonable, and enables the IDF to make stable multi-year plans and long-term commitments. Most importantly, it allows the defense establishment to revert back to the Brodet Defense Budget Framework (which called for streamlining within the IDF following the Second Lebanon War).
All in all, the budget agreement is reasonable, but there are two caveats:
1. A true revolution is only possible if the IDF implements its plan to deeply restructure its ground forces, including the dismantling of combat units and a dramatic reduction in the number of career soldiers, while simultaneously advancing cutting-edge technological frameworks that require the reallocation of funds and skilled manpower.
2. Over the next 18 months, during which the defense cut will be felt deeply, there has to be a reduction in the number of training exercises, reserves call-ups and purchase of supplies. This is a calculated risk, one that requires constant oversight both from within and from without, to ensure that in this volatile Middle East reality we do not end up paying dearly for cutting costs.
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