The most bizarre election
The headlines this Saturday, the last Saturday before the election, belonged to Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman. He traveled south to Beersheba to impart his wisdom: The Likud-Yisrael Beytenu coalition is going to win 40 seats in the election, contrary to the polls that predict 32 to 35 seats for the joint list. He is a politician trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But it appears that he has failed to discern his party's weak points. On the one hand, his firm assertions that Israel will not yield to U.S. President Barack Obama's pressure and will continue to build new homes in Jerusalem have failed to draw a deluge of votes from the Right. On the other hand, his "the-entire-world-is-against-us" approach and his unnecessary declaration that Israel will not make any gestures to appease Turkey have led to a succession of international incidents which may be a source of concern for the average undecided voter.
Likud-Beytenu has been waging a war on two fronts with the Center-Left and with Habayit Hayehudi. Instead of fighting both with a positive election campaign, it has been stumbling on the Left and on the Right, and only during the final days of the campaign did it remember to mention its achievements in office. Political science departments in universities across the country will soon be studying this turn of events.
Next Saturday, we will not be hearing a single word on the topic. The closing of the polls will divert the nation's attention toward the business side of things the distribution of ministerial portfolios and assembling the next coalition. Today begins the final stretch of the most bizarre election Israel has ever known. A further 48 hours of verbal blows, and it's all over.
It has already been said that this election failed to focus on a key issue. The secondary issues were also ever changing. There was the usual number of gaffes, all of which were quickly swept under the rug. The entire campaign was accompanied by a surprising mathematical assumption: Likud-Beytenu will lose 20 percent of the seats it currently holds and Labor will become stronger, but not nearly as strong as the 25 seats for which party leader Shelly Yachimovich initially opted.
This happened because the polls on the big parties and on the tiny parties fighting to meet the minimum threshold were not uniform. There was a frenetic oscillation between failure and success, especially in the results for Likud-Beytenu and the center-left parties.
Am Shalem (Complete Nation), headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem, hovered right on the cusp of the minimum threshold of votes required to enter the Knesset. Including the party, or alternately omitting it, from a poll could determine whether or not the party succeeds. Shaul Mofaz's Kadima, too, had a good run for a few days until it was again omitted from the polls on Saturday.
A public opinion poll is a working tool for any politician or political adviser, and an amusement for the public. There is always an element of "bread and circuses" in every election. It is precisely because the polls were not uniform during the final days of the election campaign that the public will get to amuse itself with the suspense of the night following the election. A lot derives from that.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו