The Syria hangover

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort town of Sochi on Wednesday is perhaps the most important between the two leaders since Russia began intervening in the Syrian civil war over a year ago.

This military intervention, which turned Russia into Israel's neighbor along its northern border, initially sparked concerns over possible friction and even an outright clash between Russian air and naval forces, operating freely and unhampered in Syria, and Israel, which has south to maintain its freedom to operate in the Syrian arena when necessary. One such clash, between Russia and Turkey, occurred when a Russian fighter jet was shot down by Turkish forces in November, 2015, led to a serious diplomatic crisis and forced Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to apologize to Putin.

In the case with Israel, however, dialogue as well as personal chemistry between Putin and Netanyahu has prevented potential military friction and has allowed both sides to continue pursuing their respective paths. Russia pummeled Syrian rebels across the country, decimated them and saved Syrian President Bashar Assad from assured demise. Israel, in the meantime, continued unabated to target weapons convoys from Iran to Hezbollah inside Syria.

The problem is that the understandings between Netanyahu and Putin were ideal for a certain point in time. On the ground, in Syria itself, the reality is rapidly changing. The war there is approaching its conclusion, sooner than expected, with Assad still in power and Israel questioning what it can expect from the Syrian tyrant in the war's aftermath. Will it be the same tyrant with whom Israel sought peace in exchange for the Golan Heights, in the hopes that such a deal would sever him from Iran and Hezbollah-

Assad delivered a partial answer in his speech Sunday in Damascus. He declared the war was close to over and said Syria survived the campaign despite losing its best sons, and that's its victory was due in large part to Russia and mostly to Iran and Hezbollah, whose actions on behalf of Syria would enter the pages of history.

To be sure, when the war in Syria ends the winner will be Putin, who put the entire weight of his country behind Assad to save him. The other central actors, of course, were Iran and Hezbollah, who fought shoulder to shoulder with the Russians and in return received from them a foothold in Syria.

Israel has been working in recent weeks to ensure that the cease-fire deals concocted by the Russians will keep Iran and Hezbollah away from the border with Israel, and that Iran will not be allowed to build military bases or facilities in Syria to pose a threat to Israel. The Russians are willing to listen to Israel; they are not hostile to it as they were in the past. Moscow, though, has its own interests in Syria, and in its view Israel must learn to live with Iran and Hezbollah, two vital allies for Russia in the region.

The Russians have seemingly forgotten their own outrage upon learning of U.S. plans to deploy forces in Baltic countries, in Poland and countries in central Asia. Superpowers, however, are apparently held to different standards than smaller countries.

The meeting with Putin is important because the Americans aren't in the game. It turns out the Obama and Trump administrations are rather similar when it comes to the cold and even cynical decision to abandon the Syrian rebels to their fates and focus on far more profitable and accessible endeavors, such as eradicating Islamic State.

It's easy to understand why Russia and the U.S. want to fight Islamic radicalism and ensure stability. However, when the big boys celebrate, the small players more often than not pay the price, and Israel is now being asked to pick up the tab for the feast in Syria by coming to terms with Tehran's presence there.

Israel would be wise to formulate policy regarding developments inside Syria, which it has avoided doing these past eight years of war, and mainly red lines. What's clear is that it cannot place its security in the hands of Putin or Trump when Iran's shadow looms near.

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