Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declared a freeze of diplomatic ties with Israel, which, incidentally, never quite existed in the first place. Even so, it appears security cooperation, and even more importantly the economic relations equally crucial to both sides, will continue -- essentially rendering Abbas' declaration moot. The purpose of his declaration, therefore, was to appease Palestinian public opinion in the territories. The Palestinian street expects its leader to take a stance amid the escalating tensions on the Temple Mount, particularly when Abbas' rivals in Hamas, not to mention other Arab countries (even if just a minority), are all trying to dictate a militant line and fan the flames. Another possibility is that Abbas is directing this message at the White House -- since diplomatic contact with Israel is currently being conducted via American mediation rather than directly. The crisis surrounding the Temple Mount erupted while Abbas was in the midst of confronting Hamas over control of Gaza, with the ultimate objective being to bring Hamas to its knees. The PA president is tightening the noose around the coastal enclave by cutting electricity and water supplies, measures that have a significantly greater impact on the day-to-day lives of Palestinians in Gaza than metal detectors at the entrance to the Temple Mount. This isn't just a fight over Gaza, however, but for Abbas' future leadership prospects. To be sure, the groundwork is being laid inside and outside the PA to replace him (see Egypt's budding ties with his archrival, Mohammed Dahlan). Abbas' leadership is negligible. He is not a man of dramatic declarations or actions. This is his blessing and his curse. He is not a man of violence or zeal, but he is apparently not the man to lead the Palestinians to a courageous peace agreement either. All he wants is essentially to return home safe and sound. The practical significance is that Israel will have to resolve the current crisis on its own; or perhaps with the help of neighboring Arab countries, chief among them Jordan or Saudi Arabia. Abbas will not oppose whatever compromise is reached, and will even look to capitalize on it as he continues to ward off adversaries vying for his seat.
Abbas is out of the game
פרופ' אייל זיסר
פרופ' אייל זיסר הוא מומחה למזה"ת ואפריקה וסגן הרקטור באוניברסיטת תל אביב
