Sunday, the day on which Turkey held a referendum to approve changes to its constitution, was supposed to have been a great day for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A day on which a resounding majority of the Turkish public was to stand behind him and give him absolute support for changes designed to increase his power and expand his presidential authorities. Along with changing the governmental system to a U.S.-like presidency -- without a representative assembly or media to balance, restrain, or even stop him -- the changes to Turkey's constitution were intended to allow Erdogan to remain in power until 2029, which will give him sufficient time to change the face of the country, erase the legacy of its founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and rebuild it in his own vision as a nation that turns its back on the West to look back at its Ottoman and Muslim past. Everything was ready for the victory celebrations. In the past six months, since an attempted military coup was quashed (a coup whose mastermind remains a mystery), Turkey has lived through a horror show that only Erdogan could put on. Close to 100,000 government employees, including judges, police officers, and military officers, academics, and journalists were fired and some 40,000 of them were imprisoned on charges of involvement in the failed putsch. Erdogan, as usual, whipped up people's primal instincts, scaring and threatening them, an even worsened Turkey's relations with the European Union, using the Europeans as his personal punching bag, the way he used to do with Israel -- all to win votes. But Erdogan met with disappointment. The changes he sought to make to the constitution were approved by a slim majority of only 51%. In other words, despite an aggressive campaign and fear tactics, half the voters in Turkey -- slightly fewer than 24 million out of 58 million -- were not deterred from saying "no" to Erdogan. What is particularly notable is the fact that in all of Turkey's large, important cities -- centers of government, economy, and culture such as Istanbul, the capital Ankara, the port city of Izmir, or even Diyarbakir, a Kurdish stronghold in the east of the country -- opposition to Erdogan increased, and he had to make do with the massive support from Turkey's rural areas. The results of the referendum indicate that Erdogan's power lies with the weakness of his opponents, who are split into factions and who lack a charismatic figure to lead them in the political battle they are waging for the future of the country. Other than that, it's hard to think of anything the Kurdish masses in eastern Turkey who said "no" to Erdogan have in common with the elites of Istanbul and Ankara, who are also hostile to Erdogan and loyal to Ataturk's legacy but who refuse to talk with the Kurds and recognize their ethnic identity as a distinct part of the fabric of Turkish society. The result of the referendum can hardly be seen as a clear mandate for Erdogan to achieve the changes he seeks to make. It is a warning light telling him not to go too far. But Erdogan isn't someone who tends to stop at red lights. He has already rushed to announce that a margin of even a single vote in a referendum is a victory that allows him to go on doing what he wants. Erdogan is convinced that he was born to rule and that his presidency will last forever. But his day will come. The question is, what will be left of Turkey, a country known for its commitment to secularism and western values, openness and even democracy, faltering as it might have been.
Another 'win' like this, and he loses
פרופ' אייל זיסר
פרופ' אייל זיסר הוא מומחה למזה"ת ואפריקה וסגן הרקטור באוניברסיטת תל אביב
