Although the investigation into Sunday's incident, in which an unidentified drone entered Israeli airspace and was not shot down -- is not yet complete, it seems to signify a failure on the part of the air defense system. The air defense system in northern Israel has been on high alert for the last few years due to concerns over aircraft attempting to enter Israeli airspace from Lebanon or Syria. In 2013, Hezbollah launched a drone over Israeli territory, which was intercepted over the sea near Haifa. In September 2014, a Russian-made Sukhoi-24 Syrian fighter jet was intercepted after it entered Israeli airspace in the Golan Heights. Although it was not immediately known whether the plane was going to attack Israel, no chances were taken and it was intercepted with a Patriot missile. Those on board were able to abandon the plane and parachuted into Syrian territory. On Sunday, a Patriot missile was again fired, this time at the drone that had crossed into Israeli airspace. Assessments after the incident indicated that this too was likely an accidental crossing of the border. But in real time, it was decided once again not to take chances and to bring it down. Ultimately, two Patriots were fired and both missed, and the drone returned to Syrian airspace. One of the missiles did not even reach the target and fell near Kibbutz Ayelet Hashahar. On Sunday evening, it was still not clear who sent the drone. There are three potential "suspects": Russia, Syria and Hezbollah. Russia is very active in Syrian airspace, but seldom operates drones in the Golan Heights region. Israel maintains close coordination with Russia, which has prevented the interception of Russian fighter jets that have crossed into Israeli airspace in the past. Despite this, if it becomes clear that this was a Russian drone, we will need to find out why there was no prior coordination and how we can prevent a similar incident in the future (as it could otherwise deteriorate into a crisis between the two countries, which Israel has no interest in). Hezbollah frequently gathers intelligence in the Golan Heights and even tries to test Israel's defense systems from time to time. But so far it has not been known to carry out operations in the air in the Golan Heights region. Syria also operates drones in its war against the rebels, but it is unlikely that it would want to hurt Israel and force it to respond. Although the incident did not appear to have the designs of an attack, it should stir up a fair number of questions in the IDF. While the detection system worked well, and enabled the drone to be tracked, the interception system failed. The Patriot system has some known issues, but it is supposed to deal more efficiently with aircraft than with missiles and rockets. The investigation will need to clarify the range of the detection, identification and interception, and will need to look into why one of the interception missiles failed completely and landed in a civilian area. In the air force, the term "near hit" is well known: It is studied to learn and to prevent the next accident. Borrowing the term, Sunday's "near interception" should lead to clear conclusions in order to increase chances of a successful interception next time.
