The assassination of top Hezbollah commander Mustafa Badreddine in an artillery strike carried out by Syrian rebels on his headquarters near the Damascus airport, is another severe blow for the terrorist organization and its Iranian patron, and further evidence that they are sinking in the Syrian mud. That the rebels -- who lack unity, a military command or diplomatic leadership, and have been bombed to shreds by Russian planes for over half a year now -- were able to kill the man who many considered Hezbollah's "chief of staff" and a leading successor to the organization's mythological former commander, Imad Mughniyeh, is not just a matter of luck. It illustrates, rather, that despite all the vested efforts by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah to subdue the Syrian uprising, the rebels are still alive and kicking and are far from surrendering or collapsing. In regards to Badreddine, it seems very few people are truly mourning his death. The man was involved in a long line of terrorist acts, beginning in the 1980s, when he joined the ranks of Hezbollah and Iran; and into the 2000s, when in 2005 he led the operation to assassinate then-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; as well as a series of terrorist attacks on Israeli targets, the last of which came in 2012 in Burgas, Bulgaria. As stated, along with heading Hezbollah's terrorist activities abroad, Badreddine also commanded the organization's military involvement in Syria. Over the years he had amassed a long list of enemies -- from within Hezbollah and among its Iranian patron as well -- which would explain the conjecture in the Lebanese and Arab media that his assassination was carried out by his rivals inside the organization rather than by an external enemy. Badreddine's assassination comes at an inopportune time for Iran and Hezbollah, and is another in a series of setbacks they have suffered on the Syrian battlefield in recent weeks. In any case, his death adds to the growing list of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard casualties in Syria. What was supposed to have been an easy victory march against exhausted and demoralized rebels has become an onerous slog through the deep Syrian mud. In recent weeks the fight against the Syrian rebels has focused on Aleppo and its environs. The civilian population in the city has been incessantly and mercilessly bombarded and ravaged by Russian planes, in preparation for a ground assault by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. It appears, however, that Moscow has its own calculations, and essentially sees the campaign in Syria as part of a larger game, one that it is playing against Washington and Western countries in other areas of the globe. To be sure, Russia's intervention in Syria has always played along two parallel tracts -- military and diplomatic. Regardless, Russia does not consider itself bound by Iran's timetable, constraints or interests. Indeed, Iranian and Hezbollah fighters have suffered multiple defeats and have sustained unprecedented casualties in the ground battles near Aleppo in recent weeks. Iranian troops and Hezbollah fighters have also been taken prisoner. Photos and video footage of their captivity have spread online, to the disgrace of Tehran and Hezbollah. After all, only a thin line separates successful military involvement in Syria widely supported at home in Iran and Lebanon, from a military and diplomatic fiasco followed by criticism aimed at those who caused and managed the campaign. This red line is marked by the blood of the fallen, and Iran and Hezbollah are not far from it. More than anything, however, what seems most troubling to the Iranian-Hezbollah axis is the fact that while they are spilling their blood in Syria, the person reaping the glory and political gains, while assuring himself a position of influence in the future Syria, is actually Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has intentionally avoided deploying ground troops and has sufficed with using bombers to hit rebel targets from the air. Badreddine's death is therefore a warning sign to the Iranians and Hezbollah, but one that has come too late and will unlikely influence the unfolding of events. They are too deeply entrenched in the Syrian quagmire to now extract themselves.
Bogged down in the Syrian mud
פרופ' אייל זיסר
פרופ' אייל זיסר הוא מומחה למזה"ת ואפריקה וסגן הרקטור באוניברסיטת תל אביב
