Defense officials were careful Sunday not to say officially that Hezbollah was responsible for the thwarted terrorist attack on the northern border. But it stands to reason that it was an attempt by Hezbollah to execute a low-risk, rapid retaliation over the recent airstrikes in Syria, which the Arab media has attributed to Israel. In the past, Hezbollah has always needed several days to carry out retaliatory attacks, except for when it used rockets, a readily available resource that requires no special preparations. Nevertheless, it is possible that the Shiite terrorist group has prepared several "contingency" attacks, ready to be executed on command, as seen on Sunday. This assessment is supported by the fact that the area from where the terrorist cell attempted to infiltrate is under Syrian control, as well as by the fact that the modus operandi was similar to one used by a Hezbollah cell that planted explosives on the border in March 2014, which wounded a Paratroopers Brigade officer and several troops. It is unclear whether foiling Sunday's attack will bring the current round of security escalation on the northern border to its end. Hezbollah may see the attempted attack as sufficient retaliation over the airstrikes, which according to Arab media intercepted a Lebanon-bound missile shipment, but it may also decide to look for another target on which to exact its revenge. While defense officials believe that despite Hezbollah's desire for retaliation it still prefers to de-escalate the situation, it is highly likely the organization will seek an Israeli military target, in the Golan Heights or on Mount Dov, to satisfy its needs without seeing the situation spiral out of control. It is also possible that Hezbollah will choose to mount an attack by proxy, as it did in the past and apparently on Sunday, to avoid being directly implicated in any such incident. While this seems like the foreseeable dynamic, it is not without its perils, and although Hezbollah and Israel prefer otherwise, the situation could still spiral out of control. This is a dangerous game of pingpong, as each incident destabilizes the volatile border even further, setting an increasingly higher bar for retaliation, by either side. Assuming Israel will target future weapon shipments to Hezbollah, as Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon recently declared, it is safe to assume Hezbollah will retaliate. Combined efforts by Israeli intelligence, ground, and air forces may have foiled Sunday's attack, but nothing lasts forever, which is why Israel must re-evaluate the fundamentals of its force-building policy on the Israel-Syria and Israel-Lebanon borders. Now, when a new government is being formed, will be a good time to do so, and the new Diplomatic-Security Cabinet would be wise to scrutinize Israeli strategy in its dealings with Syria and Lebanon, to ensure Israel can generate and maintain deterrence, and that an unwanted security escalation is avoided.
