Congress won't make it easy for Obama

U.S. President Barack Obama has a little less than two years left in the White House. He is not going to change in that period of time, but he very well understands that the elected representatives in Congress, who see things differently than him, also aren't going to change. They won't change when election season rolls around, either. Obama also realizes that the leaders of America's allies in the Middle East -- the Israeli prime minister, Egyptian president and Saudi king -- will not fall in line behind him on the Iranian nuclear issue and aren't going anywhere in the next 22 months. Obama is perhaps aware that Iran, with or without a deal, isn't going to change either -- despite his hopes to the contrary.

So where does the U.S. president go from here? He has two options. He can choose a collision course with his partners in exchange for a deal with Iran, or make the deal more palatable to its detractors in Washington, Jerusalem, Cairo and Riyadh and accomplish what today seems impossible: a deal with Iran on June 30 (the deadline date for a final agreement) while appeasing the large group of skeptics. Is it an impossible mission? That is very likely the case, but it appears Obama has decided to try.

The Israel-U.S. relationship goes back decades. It's a courageous bond, independent of the prime minister and president. Whether Democrats or Republicans at the helm in the U.S., or the Left or Right in Israel, the friendship endures. That's how it is when values are shared and camaraderie has been built between the two peoples. Washington and Jerusalem are allowed to disagree (it's happened before), but the point of no return mustn't be crossed. It seems Obama knows this as well. Perhaps that is why he told The New York Times that despite wanting a deal with Iran -- because it's a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" -- if anybody in the region "messes with Israel, America will be there."

It's possible that Obama has understood that two weeks after Netanyahu's speech to Congress there were elections in Israel and Netanyahu was given a mandate. Obama perhaps understands that Netanyahu is not alone in being concerned over a bad deal with Iran, and that many of those who didn't vote for him also share this concern. Indeed, a nuclear Iran, with the type of regime in place there, is completely unacceptable in this area of the globe. For this reason Obama will also convene, as soon as this spring, a summit in Washington for the leaders of six Gulf states. Maybe Obama understands there is a limit to flirting with Iran at the expense of friends. Perhaps this is why U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, in an interview to Channel 1, announced that Obama will meet Netanyahu at the White House after the task of forming a new governing coalition is completed. The meeting with Obama, then, isn't dependent on Iran, but on Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon.

Even in his interview with New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, Obama admits there are "real political difficulties" involved in a deal with Iran. Obama recognizes that his achievement in Lausanne is still very far from a final deal. Beyond the pitfalls the Iranians are preparing for him toward the finish line, Congress doesn't intend on granting him any concessions either.

While Obama is hopeful the Senate doesn't make things difficult, the new chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, Republican Sen. Bob Corker from Tennessee, has made it clear the Senate will not forgo its duty of reviewing the deal for approval. In an interview with Fox News, Corker also said the Senate was very close to the 67 senators required to override a presidential veto. Corker, meanwhile, has shown no signs he intends to decline the April 14 vote on the bill that would give Congress a 60-day window to debate the Iran agreement before voting yes or no or taking no action -- which could eventually lead to further sanctions against the ayatollah regime. Obama may be the president, but when it comes to Iran he is maneuvering in a minefield.

Obama didn't appreciate Netanyahu's speech to Congress. Perhaps today he believes that the person who turned Congress "on" can also turn it "off." This thinking, however, severely underestimates the reasoning and deduction capabilities of his colleagues on Capitol Hill. One only needs to read newspapers from around the world to see how much Israel is not alone in its concern over a bad deal. There are too many holes in this framework agreement, and it's even more crucial to remember with whom the deal is being signed.

One of the criticisms leveled at Israel from supporters of the deal is its condemnation of the deal without proposing an alternative. On Monday, in a briefing with the foreign media, International Relations, Intelligence and Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz detailed Israel's demands, which among other things include: the cessation of nuclear research and centrifuge development; shutting down the underground enrichment facility at Fordo (something the U.S. administration also sought, not too long ago); exposing the military aspect of Iran's nuclear program -- an inexplicable concession made to the Iranians that was criticized in the French media; an Iranian commitment to transfer its entire stockpile of enriched uranium outside its borders; and assurances that international inspectors will be able to examine any site inside Iran at any time. These demands, incidentally, are not extravagant. True, the Iranians will say these demands are an offense to their national dignity, but their lies, which have brought them this far, are an offense to world peace. Which is preferable?

If a deal with Iran is ultimately not achieved, Obama's clashes with Congress and his allies in the Middle East might cease, and he also won't have bequeathed a problematic deal to his successor. Obama, however, is no longer in that frame of mind. His foreign policy calculations already include a path toward Iran, although in his New York Times interview he revealed his intention of bringing Jerusalem, Egypt and Riyadh along on that path -- and Washington as well.

This does not assure success, but it certainly has the potential to improve the atmosphere. The message in all of this is that Obama wants a deal, but doesn't want to break all the rules of the game either.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו