Throughout the long days of the Gaza fighting, Israel expressed a hope that the moment the cannons fell silent and the rocket fire stopped, Hamas' political leaders and military commanders would leave the bunkers where they were hiding, see the terrible destruction wreaked upon the Gaza Strip because of their decision to wage war on Israel, and realize that they'd been beaten and be truly and deeply deterred from any new war on Israel -- not now, and not in months or years to come. But the complete opposite happened. When the cease-fire was announced and the extent of the devastation became clear to Hamas members, even those who were still hiding, they concluded that they had to keep shooting, if only on a small scale. Regret for dragging the residents of the Strip into this painful, costly adventure -- like what Hassan Nasrallah expressed after the Second Lebanon War? No such thing. Even before Operation Protective Edge, we knew that Gaza was not Lebanon, and that the leaders of Hamas were not Hassan Nasrallah. But it seems like the reason for renewed outbreak of fighting in Gaza is not that the destruction there was not sufficiently extensive to deter Hamas, but rather the opposite. The blow to Hamas was so critical that it has no choice but stick to its struggle, which has become an existential fight for its future as a movement presuming to lead the Palestinian people. Hamas, therefore, has nothing to lose. It senses that it's trapped in a dilemma: it must choose between going back to the situation that existed before the war with Israel -- remaining in power in the Strip and keeping its weapons, but with the blockade on Gaza still in place -- or the comprehensive process Israel and Egypt are pushing for: rehabilitation in exchange for demilitarization, with international involvement in what happens in the Strip. If its leaders accept the results of the operation and go back to business as usual, Hamas will be placed in conflict with its own people in the Strip, who will demand an explanation about why the group involved them in a fight that every home and every Palestinian in Gaza is paying the price for. On the other hand, transitioning into a political-diplomatic process to rebuild the Strip, with the involvement of the international community and Arab states, risks placing Hamas between the Israeli rock and the Egyptian hard place, with PA President Mahmoud Abbas, weak as he might be, waiting in the wings, hoping to benefit from the waning support for Hamas in the Strip. Pro-Hamas demonstrations and excitement about its military achievements, real and staged, might be increasing in the West Bank, but in Gaza the population knows the truth and is waiting in despair for some hope and alternative, even if it is not of their choice. In the dearth of either hope or an alternative, it will have to cluster, once again, under the Hamas flag. From this low point Hamas is launching a war of survival, the goal of which is to force Israel and Egypt to agree to a deal that will guarantee its place as the primary armed group governing Gaza and that everything that takes place there, particularly economic rehabilitation, is done according to its dictates. In the current situation Hamas has nothing to lose by resuming its fire, since another day of Israeli bombing (restrained, admittedly) doesn't better or worsen the position of its people. In doing so, it exploits Israel's Achilles heel: the willingness to accept Hamas' continued control over the Strip and the desire to get back to normal and end the fighting. Israel is now facing a painful dilemma of its own. It must either defeat Hamas and smash its regime, a militarily and diplomatically feasible move that neither the government nor the Israel Defense Forces wants to make, or reach an agreement with the movement that will allow it some breathing room, at an acceptable price to Israel, in hope that the operation achieved deterrence and that a gradual process will eventually give Israel and Egypt the chance to defeat Hamas in its own backyard: the Palestinian people.
Hamas is fighting for its life
פרופ' אייל זיסר
פרופ' אייל זיסר הוא מומחה למזה"ת ואפריקה וסגן הרקטור באוניברסיטת תל אביב
