Day-to-day deterrence
Israel heeded Egypt's request by agreeing to an unconditional 72-hour cease-fire. Hamas came on board only after Israel exerted more military pressure.
The Cairo-led talks will dovetail with what appears to be Operation Protective Edge's denouement. The military maneuvers will now be replaced with diplomatic heavy lifting that will produce an uncertain outcome. There is no doubt that Israel has dealt Hamas a crushing, unprecedented blow. Has deterrence been established? Yes. For how long? There is no way of telling. The proof is in the pudding. Only after deterrence unravels can its true value be assessed.
If the cease-fire holds, Israel should consider embracing a new political order vis-a-vis Hamas. Operation Cast Lead concluded without an agreement; Operation Pillar of Defense ended with an agreement. Is one outcome necessarily better than the other?
Amos Yadlin, director of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies, has recently penned an article listing the frustrating setbacks Hamas has suffered as a result of the operation. He claims that unlike the situation following other flare-ups, Israel and Egypt are not going to allow Hamas to replenish its stockpiles and rebuild its military capability.
Israel has more ambitious goals. For example, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would help Gaza's economy in exchange for its demilitarization. Ideally, Israel would also want Hamas toppled, but this should only be pursued if Egypt or the Palestinian Authority would take over the Gaza Strip. Having said that, the operation will have been successful if Israel achieves even the bare minimum: Hamas not stocking up on more rockets and mortars and not being able to build a new tunnel network.
Some 18 months from now, maybe in two years, Israel will have a subterranean Iron Dome. But for now, Israel needs to maintain a heavy military presence along the border with the Gaza Strip. And its needs luck.
Regardless of its gains, Israel should brace itself for a protracted legal imbroglio on the world stage. The international community's twisted sense of morality recognizes Israel's right to defend itself against rockets and tunnels but cannot come to terms with the Jewish state exercising that right.
The Muslim world, including Turkey's leaders, are propagating a blood libel against Israel, trying to cast it as a Nazi-like entity -- and the enlightened world is just standing idly by. The U.N. wants to form an inquiry committee that would scrutinize Israel's role in a war started by Hamas. British Prime Minister David Cameron said his country will review arm sales to Israel. His statement is particularly shocking because London has refused to accept what every Israeli soldier has witnessed first hand: virtually every household in the Gaza Strip has some form of weapon.
We must also ask why, after 28 days of fighting, Israel has yet to publish pictures of what the troops found in Gaza: drawers and closets packed with fancy suits, hand grenades, and pictures of so-called martyrs. The ongoing war over Israel's image and its international stature started before the cease-fire, and it can be expected to continue. Meanwhile, intra-Jewish wars are already underway in the Knesset and the cabinet; the sword of the Wars of the Jews has yet to return to its sheath.
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