Hamas pressured on both fronts

After 23 days of fighting in the Gaza Strip, some in Israel were saying Wednesday that it was time to make a decision -- not in the simplistic, popular sense of defeating Hamas by taking Gaza and toppling its regime, but in the sense of bringing the current military campaign to its end.

This requires caution, as assessments are an elusive thing. Israel has misinterpreted Hamas' rationale and actions more than once over the past three weeks, and it may misread them again. One unexpected event, a significant operational mistake or, heaven forbid, a soldier's abduction, could change the entire picture and with it the balance of power between Israel and Hamas, especially as it is perceived from the outside. This may change the nature of the entire campaign, causing it to either escalate further or end over a tragic mistake.

Military and intelligence officials, however, say that achieving the primary goal of neutralizing Hamas' terror tunnels is within reach. This mission has exacted a heavy price from Israel, claiming the lives of 56 soldiers as of Wednesday, but has also significantly damaged Hamas' infrastructure.

The damage caused to Hamas' military wing is known, but the real pressure Hamas now finds itself under comes from the Palestinian population in Gaza: Over 200,000 Palestinians have been displaced across the Gaza Strip, refugees form Beit Hanoun are beseeching the residents Gaza City's upscale Rimal neighborhood for food and shelter, there are reports that Hamas operatives are stealing the UNRWA food stamps given to refugees, and there is also a growing sense of anger among the Palestinians about the devastation fighting Israel has caused in Gaza -- with nothing to show for it.

This frustration, it seems, has even seeped down to the concrete-reinforced bunkers where Hamas' leadership is hiding.

This was clearly evident in the statements made by Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades commander Mohammed Deif on Tuesday. Merely a week after Hamas' political leader Khaled Mashaal issued 10 demands for a cease-fire, Deif narrowed it down to two: a cessation of hostilities, meaning a cease-fire; and the end of the siege, meaning the opening of all Gaza crossings. The various other demands made by Mashaal, including the release of Hamas operatives arrested in Judea and Samaria during Operation Brother's Keeper in June, have been dropped.

Assuming Hamas leadership is coordinating its position regarding a cease-fire, this could be perceived as an attempt to find a pragmatic end to the fighting, but this, of course, is how Israel sees things. Hamas' rationale does not necessarily correlate with this logic and may even defy it. As one driven into fighting by distress, it is doubtful that Hamas would agree to end the current round of violence without a tangible achievement to show for its actions.

This "something" is what Egypt is trying to put together, with Israel's support and the United States' backing. For now, the American-made mess that has been plaguing the cease-fire negotiations remains unresolved: Egypt has conditioned the talks with a cease-fire, Israel demands to remain on the ground so it can deal with the threat posed by the tunnels, and Hamas has made it clear that a lull would exclude attacks on Israeli troops on the ground.

The Palestinian delegation scheduled to arrive in Cairo for the talks, comprising representatives from the Palestinian Authority, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, will try to find a way to resolve these issues, in both internal negotiations and talks with Egypt.

The Israel Defense Forces, for now, will try to speed up its counter-tunnel operation, and it is likely to unilaterally withdraw from Gaza even if no agreement is reached -- not only because it fears further military entanglement, but due to diplomatic reasons, especially given the growing humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

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