Despite the aggressive statements coming from Israel on Tuesday, the ball is still in Hamas' court. If Hamas stops shooting in the near future, there will be a cease-fire in Gaza. If it does not, Israel will intensify its actions and both sides could end up locked in an unwanted downward spiral. As of Tuesday night, it was hard to predict what choice Hamas would make. Military Intelligence continues to believe Hamas is interested in calm, due to the blows it has taken from Israel during Operation Protective Edge. But Hamas refrained from halting its fire on Tuesday for two main reasons. First, the cease-fire agreement was drafted without Hamas being consulted. Egypt spoke with Israel, Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas and the Americans, but did not hold real talks with Hamas. There were contacts, but the agreement was presented to Hamas as a fait accompli. In addition to this humiliation, there was a second reason Hamas continued to shoot. Hamas entered the current round of fighting in great distress, due to a number of issues in Gaza, including the fact that the PA had not transferred funds to pay the salaries of 42,000 civil servants in Gaza and the ongoing closure of the Rafah Crossing on the Egyptian border, which has prevented the entry and exit of civilians and goods (as well as weaponry). The Egyptian-drafted cease-fire agreement did not address the demands of Hamas on these matters. It made no mention of the salary issue and included only a general, nonbinding reference the border crossing issue. With no solution for its troubles, Hamas continued to fight. Israel was surprised, not so much by the rocket fire itself, but rather by its intensity. In the first few hours after the cease-fire supposedly went into effect, Israel believed we had entered the familiar "braking time" period -- the time it takes for Hamas to order its rocket crews to hold their fire. But when the rocket fire increased in quantity and distance, Israel realized that Hamas was not interested in quiet at this time. Consequently, the Israeli Air Force was ordered to resume attacking targets in Gaza and infantry and armored forces deployed on the Gaza border were told to maintain a high level of readiness for the possibility on a ground operation in Gaza. In retrospect, there was one clear advantage to Israel's decision to unilaterally halt its fire: In the eyes of the world (both Western and Arab nations), Israel took a risk and gave the cease-fire a real chance and it was Hamas that chose to continue fighting. Israel earned renewed credit from this, giving it greater leeway to expand the operation against Hamas. On Tuesday night, there was vigorous debate in Israel about the need to expand the operation. This debate had a political aspect (the growing rivalry between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, as well as Netanyahu's dismissal of Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon) and a military aspect (defense experts are divided on the question of whether a ground operation would pressure Hamas to quickly agree to a cease-fire or if it would rather spur Hamas to continue fighting, pushing a cease-fire further down the road). There are a number of distinct advantages to a ground operation, including the ability to exact a heavy price from Hamas by destroying its strategic assets (such as tunnels and rocket pits), but there is also an inherent disadvantage -- the high risk to human life. As of now, it appears Israel prefers to keep the ground option on the table while upping the volume of aerial strikes, hoping Hamas will get the message and agree to a cease-fire soon. Concurrently, Israel will maintain its high level of alertness, as it has since the start of Operation Protective Edge. In the Gaza border region, there are concerns about additional "surprises" (for example, tunnels, divers, and drones) Hamas might have in store as it seeks to kill Israelis on the homefront. Also, on Israel's other borders (in Syria, Lebanon and the Sinai Peninsula), there are plenty of groups with an interest in taking advantage of the situation to fire at Israel.
