Far from optimistic | היום

Far from optimistic


The unease within the defense establishment was hard to miss Thursday, eight days into Operation Brother's Keeper, as concerns for the fate of abducted Israeli teens Gil-ad Shaer, Eyal Yifrach and Naftali Frenkel continue to mount. The fact that over a week into the incident the abductors have yet to set any demands naturally increases the fear felt for the three, and the cautious optimism of their families it also starting to falter.

The fact that despite making some headway in the investigation, as stated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday, Israel has yet to locate the teens and their abductors does not bode well. While the "golden tip" to help the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet security agency successfully conclude the operation could be received at any moment, the IDF's inability to translate its operational superiority into a result over days indicates limitations that must be reviewed.

There are lessons to be learned here for the sake of future incidents, as it is highly likely that some would seek to imitate the successful abduction.

The three's welfare, as well as the immediate operational implications of the abduction, are not the only cause for concern. Israel is also getting close to exhausting the measures at its disposal in the wider sense, the ones meant to undermine Hamas' political, financial and military infrastructure in the West Bank.

The abduction has resulted in the exhaustion of intelligence assets on the ground, especially given the massive raids and arrests of Hamas operatives this week. Proof of that was evident on Thursday, when only 30 junior Hamas operatives were arrested -- a considerably smaller number than during the first days of the operation.

Defense officials may stress publicly that they are under no pressure to bring this operation to an end, but behind closed doors it is becoming increasingly clear that the IDF can only stretch the current stage of the operation so far.

The defense establishment is concerned not only about the dwindling target bank, but also about the growing friction with the Palestinian population. The raids and arrests of the past week met little resistance for the most part, but the past two days have seen unrest in Ramallah, Jenin and Hebron, whose 700,000 residents are growing impatient with the fact that Israeli forces have been surrounding the city since Saturday, disrupting their lives.

Wary of clashing with civilians, Israel is expected to ease some of the pressure, especially as the Ramadan holiday draws near.

The proverbial operational headache across Judea and Samaria has been exacerbated by a security escalation in the south, as each day this week has seen sporadic rocket fire at Israel form the Gaza Strip. Hamas may not be responsible for the rocket fire but it has been doing little to curtail it.

Israel has been responding to the rocket fire with gradually increasing aggression, to ensure the Palestinians understand exactly how much they have to lose, but Israel has also been careful not to overreact, mostly to keep the West Bank and Gaza Strip sectors separate and avoid an unwelcome escalation in Gaza.

Still, the intensity of the flames will probably be set by Hamas, which now faces a choice between reining in the terror cells firing rockets, or going through with the threats made by its military wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, and retaliating over the IDF's operation in the West Bank.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו

כדאי להכיר