Sarkozy hopes for a miracle

In his televised debate opposite Socialist candidate Francois Hollande, French President Nicolas Sarkozy scored less than a knockout on Wednesday night, although he did garner a slight boost in polls.

Nevertheless, Hollande still leads Sarkozy by 5 percent, and as if that were not enough, former centrist candidate Francois Bayrou on Thursday called on his supporters to vote for Hollande. Under these circumstances, it's no surprise that the Socialist camp is pinning its hopes on voters, while Sarkozy can only hope for a miracle. That's how things stand ahead of the second and final round of French presidential elections on Sunday.

French newspapers, and not just left-leaning ones, have already annointed Hollande the winner, albeit cautiously. This includes Liberation and Le Monde. Everyone remembers how in 1997, polls showed rightists capturing parliament when in fact Lionel Jospin's Socialists scored a surprise victory. A big question is whether the percent and a half that Sarkozy recently gained at the expense of his rival have anything to do with Wednesday's debate, which was viewed by almost 20 million people. Professional pollster Bruno Jeanbart doubts the bump in numbers was due to the debate, which lacked drama on either side, but rather to a "general mobilization of Sarkozy voters."

In addition, about half of those who voted for Marine Le Pen in the first round said they would now vote for Sarkozy, while another 19 percent say they will vote for Hollande. Not only is it astonishing that hard-line rightists would vote for a Socialist candidate, but why do only half of them intend to vote for the center-right Sarkozy?

An examination of the extreme Right's long-term strategy provides an answer. Le Pen supporters believe that following Sarkozy's loss, his Republican Right faction will become embroiled in internal power struggles, costing them votes in the June parliamentary elections. The Socialists, Le Pen supporters believe, will fail to implement their "utopian" social visions, including an unfeasible immigration policy, so that in five or maybe 10 years, Marine Le Pen will be able to capture the Elysee Palace. That's why the far Right has failed to mobilize in great numbers on behalf of Sarkozy. "We view the president as a traitor," said Bruno, a Parisian metro worker who voted for Le Pen, on Thursday. "He is a right-wing leader who carries out left-wing policies."

The Jewish angle

Sarkozy has positioned himself as a friend of Israel, and on Thursday, when the prestigious Pavillon Dauphine banquet hall hosted a celebration of Israel's independence, it seemed like a good opportunity for politicians to come out and stump for votes. But with the exception of Foreign Trade Secretary Pierre Lellouche and a Socialist senator, I did not see many political VIPs at the event. Right-wing ministers most likely sense that the Jewish vote is in their pocket, while leftists probably realize it is a lost cause, or feel that the Jewish vote is not that important.

"It's going to be difficult," Lellouche, who is Jewish, told Israel Hayom.

"If Sarkozy loses on Sunday, what would the reason be-" I asked.

"It would be the global economic crisis," Lellouche replied. "Only that. Notice that with the exception of Germany, every sitting democratic government has lost elections since the crisis exploded in 2008."

Indeed, only recently The Wall Street Journal reported that 11 premiers have lost their positions since the start of the global recession.

"In light of the support he gets in the Jewish community and his showing in the first round of elections held in Israel, I suggest that Sarkozy make aliyah," Pierre Baraby, a Jewish communal leader, told me with a wink. Baraby sought to play down fears of a Socialist victory. "If Hollande wins, it will have no significance for the Jews," he said. Unfortunately, not everyone at the Independence Day celebration agreed with him.

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