The last five days of fighting with Gaza havent changed anything. Both sides took pains not to deviate from the rules and spark an unwanted large-scale war. For now, neither side wants that. Both sides took even greater pains to appear that they had emerged the winners. The Israeli story is one of a targeted killing that prevented a terror attack, missile interceptions that prevented civilian deaths, a strong homefront and surgical strikes on terrorists. The Palestinian story is one of defending Gaza from assassinations and attacks, paralyzing a million Israelis with the fear of rocket attacks and the right to have the last word with mortar shells and rockets -- even a Grad rocket into Netivot -- even after a cease-fire went into effect . Behind these stories lies the understanding that the events of the last few days were only an episode, and not a particularly significant one, in the story of the Gaza struggle. That is why both sides made sure not to commit themselves to anything: Israel did not promise to refrain from killing terrorists, and the Palestinians did not promise to end the rocket fire. IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz summed it up simply with a modified eye-for-an-eye remark: Calm will beget calm, fire will spark fire. Egypt took advantage of both sides reluctance to escalate matters, proving once again to be the only country with the power to mediate between Jerusalem and Gaza. But even Cairo knows that this mediation effort cannot cloak the elephant in Egypts room: the government's lack of control over the Sinai Peninsula, and the increase of terror bases and operations there. This is what caused the current round of fighting to begin with, and will probably be the cause of the next round as well. Both Israel and the terror groups in Gaza will take advantage of the calm to examine the events of the past few days and glean the necessary lessons for the next round. Gazan terrorists will be working overtime to replenish their rocket supplies, placing an emphasis on efforts to circumvent the new shield presented by Israels Iron Dome missile defense system (which summarily finished this round of violence with an impressive record of 56 interceptions out of 71). Israel will deploy a fourth Iron Dome battery and try to collect as much data as possible on Palestinian weapons storage facilities and rocket launch squads in order to eliminate them quickly in the next round. The calm achieved on Tuesday is short-lived and could easily be shattered very soon, be it with another targeted assassination of a terrorist or the resumption of terror activity from Gaza (or possibly an external event that sparks a large conflict, such as an attack on Irans nuclear facilities or Iranian efforts to prevent such an attack by escalating tensions in the regions and forcing Israel to fight locally). Judging by the succession of clashes since Israels offensive in Gaza in late 2008, one can safely say that the next round of violence is, unfortunately, just around the corner.
