Forecast for Israel-Egypt ties: cloudy

It is still too early to assess where Egypt is heading, but one can definitely speculate the possible eventualities. One thing is already clear: the Arab Spring has turned mainly into a rain cloud of hostility toward Israel and caused ominous strategic developments.

The late 70s saw an end to the cycle of violence between Israel and Egypt, a dangerous enemy up until that point. With the passage of time these two countries warmed up to one another and a strategic partnership was forged. As Egyptians prepare for the upcoming election it is not entirely clear what status the Islamic parties will gain, but it is certain that they will become stronger. No one knows whether Saudi money and American weapons will prevent the erosion of Egypt's policy. It is yet unclear whether Egypt will remain a key player in the region, as it was during the regime of deposed President Hosni Mubarak, or get caught up in internal domestic problems.

From Israel's viewpoint, the uncertainty is on two levels: the formal preservation of the peace treaty and, with more immediate implications, the strategic partnership with Egypt.

The problem is that Mubarak's ouster intensified the ability of third party players to challenge Israel-Egypt relations, and by third party players I mean provocations by Hamas and Hezbollah in efforts to exacerbate friction between Israel and Egypt along our southern border. Therefore, when carrying out retaliations for these provocations, Israel must carefully consider the extent of the retaliation as it will likely affect its relations with Egypt.

One thing is clear, both Israel's and the U.S.' good relations with Egypt are not dependent upon the Egyptian military's ability to retain power. Military leaders constitute an important segment of the Egyptian middle class, and its soldiers enjoy a relatively comfortable life with the army providing all their basic needs. The same cannot be said for the masses in Egypt's villages and city slums. For this reason, the military will likely retain its power, at least in the short term – it would be in the army's best interest to do so.

An equally likely scenario is that soldiers will refuse to act against protesting members of the Muslim Brotherhood, even if they pose a threat to the authorities, which would quickly lead to collapse.

If the military should lose its power, Egypt will enter a dark period of economic deterioration and absence of government. This will inevitably spark public frustration, which will eventually be directed at Israel and the cooperation between the two countries will come to an end.

There is no doubt that the worldview that prompted U.S. President Barack Obama to support the Egyptian revolution has collapsed. It would be best for us, and the West, if the existing regime were to remain in place. But even if the regime is replaced, we will not face any kind of threat because the Egyptian army will have weakened. But we must be prepared for the eventuality that our border with Egypt will no longer be a peaceful one.

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