The Arab League's decision to impose painful sanctions on Syria is yet another blow to the recently beaten down Bashar Assad. It is a particularly serious blow considering Syria's longtime view of itself as a fortress of Arabism in the battle against Israel and the West, and even as the Arab world's "beating heart." Syria has now become a leper state with an illegitimate leader in the eyes of its Arab sisters, and more importantly, in the eyes of the Arab street. Assad is seen as no better than his colleagues in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, whose leaders have been ousted and, in the case of the latter's Moammar Gadhafi, killed. Get the Israel Hayom newsletter sent to your mailbox! This blow comes on the heels of a particularly difficult week in Syria, with protesters carrying out effective attacks against the Syrian military and security forces. A recent ambush that killed six elite Syrian pilots in the middle of the Syrian desert is especially noteworthy. Alongside the deaths of hundreds of security and military personnel killed in the revolt since the start of the Arab Spring, these events give the distinct impression that Assad's regime is imploding. The significance of the Arab League's decision lies not in the sanctions themselves after all some nations like Lebanon, Jordan and even Iraq will likely have trouble or flat-out refuse to fulfill this decision. Rather the decision is an additional step toward the Arab world giving a green light for a military attack against Syria. This scenario a Turkish or Western attack against Assad was unimaginable up until several weeks ago, but is now becoming more and more relevant and possible. Nonetheless, the battle in Syria is far from being won. Though soundly beaten by the West, the Arab world and recently Turkey, Assad is still standing on two feet and dishing it out as good as he's getting it, if not better. The foundations of his regime are still far from collapse. This is especially apparent in his army as well as his coalition, which represents the country's minorities some 40 percent of the population. This coalition is headed by members of Assad's own Alawite sect. The Arab world, led by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, has apparently decided to bring Assad down. But Assad is not the intended target. It is Iran, perceived to be Assad's patron, that the Arab world is after. Thus the battle over Syria gains regional and international implications, which will only exacerbate the bloodshed in the Syrian streets.
The noose tightens
פרופ' אייל זיסר
פרופ' אייל זיסר הוא מומחה למזה"ת ואפריקה וסגן הרקטור באוניברסיטת תל אביב
