For the seventh time in the past year, Israel has been attributed with striking a weapons convoy making its way from Syria to Lebanon, en route to Hezbollah. As before, Israel refused to officially comment on the report and just as before, defense officials hedged that the alleged injured party would "contain" the incident, rather than risk escalation. Contrary to initial reports suggesting that the strike took place on Lebanese soil, available details suggested that, just as before, the target was on Syrian soil. This is not without operational and strategic logic: from an operational standpoint, it is easier to strike weapon shipments at their point of origin, in Syria, while they are still clustered together and before they reach Lebanon, where they are dispersed between various, hidden locations; and strategically, a strike in Syria affords everyone involved the ability to contain the results without being reluctantly dragged into further escalation. Syria is embroiled in civil war and it can always claim that one of the rebel groups is responsible for Monday's explosions, and Hezbollah claims that it is not a party to the Syrian war, which allows it to look the other way -- something it would have been unable to do if the strike had taken place in Lebanon, as Hezbollah has vowed to protect Lebanon from Israeli aggression. This alleged strike follows a tense time on the northern border, brought on by Hezbollah's repeated attempts to acquire advanced weapons, especially mid- and long-range rockets and missiles, as well as anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. Israel has even used several back channels to relay an unequivocal message to Syria and Lebanon both, warning that the repeated attempts to ship arms may lead to a security escalation. Beirut and Damascus seem to have ignored these warnings. It is possible that Hezbollah sought to use the cover of Monday's weather to try and avoid the tight Israeli surveillance, as it has done before. It is also highly likely that Hezbollah is currently engaged in trying to find -- and plug -- an intelligence leak. Both Lebanon and Syria are projecting an image of "business as usual," and pretending that nothing has happened. Neither is interested in escalating tensions with Israel: Damascus has its hands full with the civil war and its efforts to appease the West by disposing of its chemical weapons caches; and Hezbollah has its hands full not only with the Syrian civil war, but also with trying to counter the growing attacks waged against it by global jihad groups in Lebanon. On the surface, this is good news as far as Israel is concerned, as it affords it relative operational agility. Still, it is best to heed IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz's recent warning, saying that there are too many "pyromaniacs" in the region, holding too many "matches." This means that not only is it getting harder and harder to neutralize these volatile elements, but that the risk of an escalation in steadily growing.
