The citizens of Ukraine went to sleep with the knowledge of a cease-fire, declared by President Viktor Yanukovych, and woke up Thursday morning to the bloodiest day in 20 years just outside the European Union's gates. The crisis in Ukraine is already a serious international matter. The key to a solution is in the hands of one individual -- Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The EU now faces an extremely complicated test: How can it bend Putin, who is showing no signs of giving up Ukraine -- a main axis point in his burgeoning Russian empire, which the modern-day Tsar is meticulously building.
If there is anyone who at least on paper can confront Putin today, it is only the president of the leading global superpower -- Barack Obama. The EU member states need to find a way to drag the U.S. president into the turbulent diplomatic fray in Ukraine. Obama's Washington must stop leading from behind, as he did from behind the Europeans in Libya or the Russians, in Syria.
The West cannot allow itself, after the concessions it made with Iran and Syria in Russia's favor, to concede yet again in Ukraine. In essence, the West has no more wild cards to play in the Obama era, which is why Obama must end this crisis on top. It is a tough task, but not impossible. He will, however, need to change his frame of mind. It is not clear if the Americans want to.
Many in Ukraine today believe that a civil war will be hard to avoid without Yanukovych's resignation. Yanukovych has already understood he went too far, and that his options today are to either stay in power or face trial. His choice is an obvious one. Even if he means what he said Thursday to the Polish prime minister about being prepared to allow for early elections, it is only to by time.
As of now, this is still a clash between the protesters and the state apparatus. The perilous line has still not been crossed splitting Ukraine into a pro-Russian side and pro-West side fighting one another.
In the meantime, Ukraine continues to spiral. Corruption in the ex-Soviet country has led to an economy on the brink of bankruptcy. Ukraine needs to return $9 billion this year, and no one has a clue how to do it. Since the beginning of the year the local currency (the hryvnia) has depreciated by 10% against the dollar, and Washington is calling on Kiev to go to the International Monetary Fund in order to implement the necessary reforms. The advice is also political, because from an economic standpoint Ukraine is essentially a hostage to Moscow.
The interesting and most important question is: What will the Ukrainian military do? Some of the senior officers have been thrilled to work with NATO and the West since the country gained its independence in 1991. It is not certain that all of these officers will obey the regime if they are asked to do so. Obama is not taking any chances and has called on the regime to refrain from sending the army into the square. Doing so would be crossing a red line, even if the U.S. president did not say so out loud. After Syria, it is not easy for Obama to use the same color.
The assessment is that the international formula will ultimately be reached, whereby the Russians, Americans and Europeans work together as a joint mediator, similar to Syria and Iran. And if this is the outcome, it assures a victory for Putin.
In Paris, there are those who claim the way to hurt Putin is to disrupt the closing ceremony for the Winter Olympics in Sochi. On second thought, it is entirely possible that Putin joins the West to give Yanukovych the boot. After all, the Ukrainian president, during Putin's Olympics, dared to push a constitutional amendment through parliament this week that riled up the masses. Just for this he needs to be punished.
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