Assad has crossed the line

What really happened Monday in Jisr al-Shoughour? How were 120 members of the Syrian security forces really killed? Were they, as Damascus claims, killed in a fatal ambush by "armed gangs supported by a foreign state," or was it a violent confrontation between the army and a group of army deserters?

If the Syrian opposition's reports of defections from the army are true, Assad is in trouble. That, along with the flow of Syrian refugees into Turkey, Erdogan's pronouncements against Assad, the Franco-British effort to secure condemnation of Syria at the U.N. Security Council - despite Russia's opposition - shows that 41 years of Assad family rule in Syria could be approaching its end.

Defections.

Al Jazeera showed the world a young lieutenant, Muhammad Talas, who said that he joined the army in order to protect the Syrian nation from Israel, not to participate in the crimes he witnessed in Dar'a, which caused him to desert. According to reports from Syria, Sunni police and soldiers, who earn $10 a month, refused to participate in the oppression of residents of Jisr al-Shoughour, and were executed for it. Defections from the army could certainly break the stalemate in Syria.

Jisr al-Shoughour.

The city in northwestern Syria, located on the road connecting the port city of Latakia with Aleppo, Syria's second city, is located just a few kilometers from the Turkish border. Hence the regime's attempt to put down the revolt. Damascus is afraid of losing territorial control (as happened in Libya), all the more so in a town that is liable to enjoy support from across the border.

Turkey.

Assad had a good friend in the Middle East, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan. Erdogan might be frightened by the events taking place in neighboring Syria, but perhaps understands that the dam in Syrian society has been burst. Thus he is not closing the border, for now. He is not even criticizing Assad. Erdogan is sending a message to the Arab street - which can't hurt his "Ottoman" ambitions.

The world.

Just as in Libya, Europe is leading. Washington has assumed a low profile, while Russia is threatening to use its veto. A Russian veto would resonate far more than a condemnation by the Security Council, but Britain and France are moving ahead. Like Erdogan, they have no choice: Assad has crossed the line. Even ours. טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו