Diplomacy in the Middle East sometimes resembles season memberships to the Philharmonic orchestra or to a basketball league. There are seasons. They begin, they end. At some point they start up again. Repeat.
The latest season of diplomacy begins on Sunday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will bring a series of proposals and legislative initiatives for the cabinet's approval that will pave his way toward negotiations with Mahmoud Abbas. The negotiations will be conducted through emissaries and under the auspices of the United States.
The results of the poll conducted at the outset of negotiations is particularly interesting. A large majority of Israeli Jews support the fact that negotiations are taking place, but an even larger majority do not believe they will result in a peace agreement. The Israeli public wants to give peace a chance but remains skeptical, nevertheless feeling that talks are better than smoke and gunfire.
The poll results also contain a semi-contradiction. A significant majority are ready for a two-state solution, but an even greater percentage oppose such a solution if it means returning to the 1967 borders with minor reciprocal border adjustments.
It is an open question whether the public understands the concept of "border adjustments" in depth. It would mean the world recognizing settlement blocs in Judea and Samaria as sovereign Israeli territory, but involve our relinquishing other areas of Judea and Samaria, as well as areas within the Green Line. Netanyahu believes that if the sides come to an agreement that "he can live with," as he puts it, then most of the public will stand behind him.
All of this -- as well as broad support for a national referendum in the event of a retreat from Judea and Samaria -- is interesting but largely theoretical. When most of the public believes that Netanyahu can't reach an agreement with Abbas anyway, the other questions remain merely hypothetical. There is just one tangible question, the issue of releasing prisoners in exchange for holding negotiations.
By a large, decisive majority, the public not only objects to releasing terrorist murderers in exchange for starting negotiations, but also not in the midst of negotiations, when it becomes clear that both sides are serious. In any case, 78-85 percent of Israelis are opposed to the move.
But anyone involved in talks knows that without the release of prisoners, Abbas cannot sit at the negotiating table. There is a powerful lobby of Palestinian prisoners' families that is making this demand, and they received a promise. We must take into account that Netanyahu rejected all the other demands that were presented to him as preconditions. There is no American in a present or past administration who believes that the Palestinians can agree to negotiations with empty hands.
It's reasonable to assume that the government will approve the proposal to release prisoners, with conditions attached. If not on Sunday, then a week later. It is a very bitter pill to swallow. Except that reconciling the dictates of wisdom with the palpitations of the heart is the test of any mature government. The date has been set.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו