Kerry avoiding the blame game

Thirteen years ago, when the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in Camp David deadlocked, then-United States President Bill Clinton interviewed on Channel 2 and told journalist Ehud Yaari, in no uncertain terms, that Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat was to blame. It was the first time the U.S. veered from its usually neutral position and took a clear stand on the matter.

It took a long time for Yossi Ginosar (who served as then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak's envoy) and Meretz Chairman Yossi Sarid to recover from the American statement and blame Barak for the summit's disappointing results.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry could have taken a page from Clinton's book on Sunday and point at the Palestinians as the reason for the stalled peace talks, but Kerry did not do so, most likely because he has yet to reach the point of despair. He may not have been able to postpone the rest of his regional tour, but his next visit to Israel will not be an attempt to resuscitate a dead peace process, but rather an attempt -- as he sees it at least -- to push the talks further.

While this position naturally suits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu it is based on other factors and individuals, who are very familiar with the negotiations that took place over the past few days in the Jerusalem-Amman-Ramallah triangle. Netanyahu and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni (who also heads the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations alongside Netanyahu's envoy Yitzhak Molcho) reached an understanding with the Americans, which spelled some Israeli flexibility, but the Palestinian snubbed it.

The Americans, who have come to know the Israeli position via Netanyahu, Livni and Molcho, know the truth. They also understand why chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat insists on claiming there was little to no progress made.

While Netanyahu was generous with Kerry, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas cowered before his rivals on the Palestinian street and maybe even from himself. These negotiations constitute the writing on the wall, a predetermined script, and the Palestinians are following it as if it was given to Abbas on stone tablets from Mecca.

This does not mean that resuming the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is comfortable for Netanyahu on an internal political level. On the contrary, Netanyahu, Livni and Molcho are playing the cards of concessions close to their vests to avoid paying a heavy political price for any plan that fails to mature.

If these moves eventually lead to the resumption of the negotiations, Netanyahu would have to defend his compromises vis-à-vis the Likud-Beytenu faction in the Knesset, but this is a theoretical debate for now, the results of which depend on how pliable Abbas will be.

If Livni shares this assessment, the failure of the Kerry-brokered talks would not threaten the government's stability. Maybe even the opposite. Livni may end up being the best witness and advocate for Israel's efforts for peace.

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