Pinpointing the PM's position
Two Likud ministers made remarks this week suggesting that "the prime minister is already there." One of them took a step back, saying that the prime minister's new position was "in conflict with his natural inclinations." In other words, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is laying the groundwork for the resumption of peace talks with the Palestinians without preconditions, but on the assumption that every such move involves relaxing his initial standpoint further.
Spoken remarks were recorded in writing on Thursday by Haaretz reporter Barak Ravid. These remarks suggested that there is Israeli willingness to make an extensive withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. While the Likud MKs were up in arms -- certainly when these remarks come three days before the elections for Likud party institutions -- the Prime Minister's Office refrained from issuing any kind of official response. On the contrary -- Netanyahu took advantage of the pre-scheduled event on Thursday commemorating the death of Theodor Herzl to declare that he opposes the idea of a binational state.
A "binational state" is an obvious euphemism for annexing Judea and Samaria, be it under continued Israeli military rule over the Palestinian population, or a more calculated plan involving full rights to Palestinians. The latter plan, in multiple variations, has the support of many who consider themselves "Land of Israel loyalists."
Netanyahu's remarks can be interpreted in one of two ways: Either he has made a strategic decision and is ready for the establishment of a Palestinian state -- and if the other side is willing, he will stick with this approach and bring the issue to the polls, with or without the support of his party -- or alternately, he has determined that there is no Palestinian partner with whom to make such a move, and in the game of poker he is playing with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas it will be the Palestinians who walk away from the table first, and avoid any real talks. This way, the world will view Abbas as responsible for the collapse and Israel will be praised for its willingness to evacuate settlements, while in practice sparing itself the embarrassment of actually going through with an actual evacuation.
If the latter interpretation is the accurate one for Netanyahu's behavior, then it is quite convenient for him to be losing some of his popularity within his own party ranks, as it builds his credibility in the chess game he is playing with Abbas and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. The criticism against him from the right-wing elements inside his party is helping him somewhat neutralize the other side's suspicion that he doesn't really mean what he says, and is merely trying to manipulate the situation and avoid an overt conflict with the U.S.
Judging from Netanyahu's massively covered speech at an air force graduation ceremony this week (and IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz's speech as well), it is clear that Israel is focusing its full attention and concerns on the civil war raging in Syria -- in which Iran is taking a central role with the help of the ever-weakening Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Kerry is shifting Israel's focus back onto the Jerusalem-Ramallah axis, and both sides are expressing willingness to meet. But neither side has high hopes that this initiative will yield any success.
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