The bad guys are winning
, עודכן
When the protests broke out in Daraa, Syria on March 15, 2011, it became apparent that the Syrian narrative was going to be quite different from the rest of the Arab Spring. The civil war in Syria has too many implications for too many foreign powers in the region. Today, 800 days after the onset of the violent conflict, one can see how the fighting managed to revive a cold war between two old superpowers, as Washington and Moscow each pick a side.
This week was an unpleasant one for those expecting real change to take place in our region. "Good intentions" and "morality" are not exactly commonplace items in the Middle East, and it must be said that as it did this week, the world did not help much.
This week we witnessed, to our frustration, just how much the solution to the Syrian conflict is tied to Moscow and not Damascus. It was a week in which the Russians did not mask their intentions. With Russia casting its vote for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it does not come as a surprise that the embattled Syrian president announced his plan not only to finish his current term but to run for re-election.
This was the week in which Damascus realized how valuable it would be to drag Israel into the conflict. Jerusalem understood that it was better to talk less or only when really needed (Yaakov Amidror on the Russian missile shipments). Syria's foreign minister threatened that another Israeli attack on his country would be met with an immediate response. It is uncertain whether he meant what he said and whether Syria is even capable of doing so, but Syria is looking to relabel itself in the Arab street, to swap out the image of thousands of victims with one of bravery in battling Israel.
During this week the West once again broadcast a muddled message, while the "axis of evil" knows how to speak clearly. The "allies" stutter. Take Washington, which surrendered to Moscow when it agreed to having representatives of the Assad regime at the second Geneva conference, sitting across from the Syrian opposition. Yet suddenly the U.S. protests Russian weapon transfers to Assad and announces a plan (-) to establish a no-fly-zone above Syria. The European Union once again revealed its helplessness and decided to remove the embargo on arming the rebels, providing them with a convenient excuse for their lack of action or intention to do something in Syria.
This week we also saw how disunited the Arab world is (was it ever united-) and the clashes on Thursday are bringing back past conflicts. Take Lebanon, a source of regional friction since its civil war in 1975, which has returned to threaten our stability. Shiite group Hezbollah and the Sunni groups are locked in a violent struggle. Hezbollah called on Hamas to leave Lebanon because of its involvement in fighting Assad, as rebels in Syria fired rockets at Beirut. Lebanese President Michel Suleiman has no choice but to ask his political allies, Hezbollah, to stop their involvement out of fears they will import Syria's war to Lebanon.
The Iranian patron maintains the right balance of involvement. In Iran they are preparing for elections while Assad is still in power and the centrifuges continue to spin.
This week also marked the success of the Syrian ice cream parlor Bakdash, which opened a parlor in Jordanian capital, Amman. The original parlor (which I have visited) was in the enchanting ancient market district in Damascus. The Syrian refugees, who miss their country, arrived in droves to taste the ice cream sprinkled with pistachios from Aleppo. They won't be back at the original Damascus shop for a while.
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