Another place, another time

The general consensus among Israeli policymakers on Thursday was that a wide-scale escalation on the northern front was not in the offing, at least not in the immediate future. It was generally accepted that the main protagonists on the other side — Syria, Hezbollah and Iran — will swallow their pride and not let their anger decide for them; they will exact revenge at a later fate, in another place.

Among those summoned for briefings with the IDF chief of general staff, the minister of defense and the prime minister on Thursday, the conventional wisdom was that Israel was not heading toward an escalation. Along the Lebanese border it was "business as usual," although Israeli troops were instructed to stay "alert" and follow guidelines and standard operating procedures to protect themselves and civilians from becoming easy targets.

On the other side of the border, in Syria and Lebanon, the foreign media reports on the alleged attack on the Hezbollah-bound convoy carrying SA-17 air defense systems was a source of embarrassment. While Iran vowed to retaliate and hit Tel Aviv, the belief is that Tehran, Damascus and Beirut do not want all-out war; each for its own reason.

Therefore, it is likely that if they choose to retaliate, the attack would take place within a different context, when an easy target becomes available. Its modus operandi could be complicated for Israel. It could involve, for example, rocket fire by Palestinian groups from Lebanon, or Hezbollah barrages from Syria. It could also be in the form of an attack on Israelis overseas, like the one in the Bulgarian resort city of Burgas last summer.

Both sides waged a diplomatic-public relations effort on Thursday to complement the events on the ground. Israel, which has been silent about the role it may have played in the alleged attack, told Western governments, as well as China and Russia, that continued efforts to transfer advanced weapon systems to Hezbollah could result in an escalation. This issue is likely to arise over the weekend, when Defense Minister Ehud Barak holds talks with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and a large number of defense chiefs from other countries at a conference in Munich, Germany.

For its part, Syria has tried to cast itself as a victim of Israeli aggression, claiming that the allegedly bombed site was an innocuous "scientific research center" near Damascus. Syria's goal was designed, at least in part, to generate sympathy. But the Syrian announcement goes beyond phony victimhood; it carries with it an implicit warning: We may have let this slide this time, but next time we will retaliate.

The efforts to transfer advanced weapon systems (chemical weapons, SCUD missiles, and sophisticated air defense systems) to Hezbollah are likely to continue, and may actually intensify as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's hold on power weakens. Assuming Israel obtains intelligence on such efforts in the future and decides to act on it, internal pressure within Syria and Lebanon to exact revenge would grow, potentially setting the whole northern front ablaze.

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