Quo vadis the Arab tsunami
, עודכן
Where is the Arab Middle East headed? Now after the disintegration of Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Sudan? After the toppling of several Arab regimes? After the estimated 400,000 fatalities and 6 million refugees resulting from intra-Arab conflicts? After the proliferation of Islamic Sunni terrorism? After the unprecedented power-projection surge by Iran's ayatollahs? After the Sunni and Shiite terrorist machetes at the throat of the House of Saud and all other pro-U.S. Arab regimes? And after the intensified violation of human rights in every Arab country, all ruled by minority regimes-
The raging Arab tsunami -- popularly referred to as the Arab Spring -- of the last six and a half years has further destabilized the one-bullet, provisional Arab regimes, characterized by tenuous policies and uncertain bilateral and multilateral intra-Arab agreements.
This has added much fuel to the fire of the inherently unpredictable and intensely complex, non-nation-state, nondemocratic Middle East, which has been systematically misperceived by the Western establishment.
Where is the Arab tsunami heading? The chaotic intra-Arab roller-coaster may have shifted, temporarily, to a relatively lower gear, but it is brutally surging on.
By dealing a severe blow to Islamic State terrorists in 2017 without clipping the wings of Iran's ayatollahs , the U.S. has provided a tailwind to Iran's entrenchment in Syria, and increasingly in Lebanon. It has advanced the ayatollahs' domination of the critical area from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, which is a prelude to Iran's megalomaniacal vision of denying the U.S. "modern-day-Crusader" regional and global pre-eminence.
This could be a repeat of the U.S. toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003, when the U.S. elevated Iraq's Shiites, dumping Iraq's Sunnis, which reinforced the ranks of Sunni terrorism. This paved the way for the ayatollahs' dominance in Iraq -- which intensified anti-U.S. terrorism -- and created a clear and present danger for every pro-U.S. Arab regime in the Persian Gulf and beyond.
In 2011, a U.S.-led coalition toppled Moammar Gadhafi's rogue regime in Libya, despite the fact that Gadhafi was involved in a ferocious war against Islamic terrorism in Libya and Africa. Moreover, in 2003, Gadhafi transferred his infrastructure of weapons of mass destruction to the U.S. The toppling of Gadhafi accelerated the disintegration of Libya, transforming the huge country (680,000 square miles, two and a half times the size of Texas) into a major safe haven and breeding ground for Islamic terrorism.
While the U.S. military power projection and posture of deterrence are prerequisites for the Western battle against Islamic terrorism -- and keeping Islamic terrorism away from the U.S. mainland -- a misguided U.S. policy has tolerated the ayatollahs' imperialism, subversion and terrorism, allowing them to surge on the coattails of the 2015 nonratified Iran nuclear deal, further destabilizing the Middle East.
For example, tectonic developments simmer below the seemingly stable surface in Jordan. These developments are generated and bolstered by the 60% Palestinian majority. Examples include the 1951 murder of King Abdullah by a Palestinian, the 1970 civil war, the 1980s Hashemite-Palestinian confrontations); the unpredictable Muslim Brotherhood terrorists; the importation of additional Sunni Islamic terrorist sleeper cells; the historical divisiveness between the Hashemite migrants from the Arabian Peninsula and the indigenous Bedouin; the 1.5 million Syrian refugees; the boiling borders with Iraq and Syria, which increasingly accommodate the anti-Hashemite ayatollahs.
A volcanic eruption in Jordan could spill over, swiftly, into neighboring Saudi Arabia and other pro-U.S. Arab countries, which are threatened by the ayatollahs and home-grown terrorists. This would impact the life expectancy of the ruling House of Khalifa in Bahrain, as well as the level of violent Muslim Brotherhood opposition to the Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi regime in Egypt.
Where is the Middle East heading? According to Amir Taheri, the veteran Iranian writer, researcher and expert on Islam, the Persian Gulf and the Middle East: "'Modernization' is spreading. ... I saw a 'modernized' Middle East with armies marching across scorched plains, soldiers and mercenaries cursing in a dozen different languages, the choir of cannons and the choreography of armored cars and tanks. I saw refugees and displaced persons camps, barbed wire, watchtowers, loudspeakers spreading the latest version of truth. There were minefields and grieving mothers, naked children and victims of gas attacks and chemical weapons. The skies were dotted with warplanes dropping more bombs on Syria and Iraq than on Germany during the Second World War. The landscape of ruins, reminding one of Berlin, Warsaw and Leningrad in 1945. ... This looked like Europe in 1918 or 1945, only magnified many times over thanks to the superior power of destruction we now have."
Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" is a prerequisite for a realistic national security policy, devoid of wishful thinking and oversimplification-driven hopes.
Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" highlights the critical role of the posture of deterrence -- while avoiding appeasement and retreats in the face of temptations and pressure, which trigger more pressure and terrorism -- in shaping homeland and national security policies.
Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" underlines the unique role played by Israel -- as long as it controls the high ground rather than withdrawing to the pre-1967 sliver along the Mediterranean -- in extending the strategic hand of the U.S. in the face of mutual threats.
Acquaintance with Middle East "modernization" clarifies the nature of the primary threats to regional stability and the survival of pro-U.S. Arab regimes -- posed by the rogue ayatollahs and Sunni Islamic terrorism -- and the limited regional role played by the Palestinian issue.
Yoram Ettinger is a former ambassador and head of Second Thought: A U.S.-Israel Initiative.
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