Against all logic, and more importantly contrary to the interest of all parties involved in the Persian Gulf crisis, the confrontation between Qatar and its Arab neighbors is intensifying. The crisis further escalated last week when Qatar ignored the ultimatum issued by its rivals, which included 13 demands, including: scaling back its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, shutting down Al Jazeera, closing the Turkish military base in Qatar and finally, downgrading diplomatic relations with Iran, Qatar's Shiite neighbor to the east. Despite Qatar's attempt to project a "business as usual" appearance, the partial blockade is taking a toll. This blockade could become hermetic should the neighboring Arab states close off their airspace and territorial waters not just to Qatari airlines and vessels but to foreign aircraft and ships making their way to the country. Qatar is completely dependent on the outside world, and if the siege continues, it could have serious consequences for that country's financial might. And yet, ever since the outbreak of the crisis, it has been clear that Qatar's surrender to the demands is not a viable goal. As long as it has the support of the United States, never mind Europe and Turkey, it will be difficult to bring the Qatari leadership to its knees. But a reasonable compromise could be reached that would bring Qatar back into the Arab arena and minimize the scope of the damage it inflicted on its neighbors. Qatar is without question a thorn in the side of many Arab countries; a mischievous and irritating child with bad impulses. But it is not the main problem, and more importantly, it is not the main threat to the region. This threat is situated in Tehran. For many Arab states, like Egypt for example, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's aspirations for hegemony, coupled with Turkey's growing presence in the region, also pose a threat. The continuing conflict between Qatar and its neighbors serves to strengthen Iran -- the principal beneficiary from this crisis. The conflict distracts from other more important issues, like the war in Syria for example, where the conflict seems to be nearing a resolution that will impact the entire region, including Israel, in the way Syria is partitioned and whether Iran succeeds in establishing a land corridor from Tehran to Beirut. There will be those who claim Washington's resolute message to Iran and against terror is what drove the Arab states' full-fledged assault on Qatar, but the crisis caught the U.S. by surprise and ill-prepared. If Washington is unsuccessful at making peace in the Gulf, it is doubtful they will be able to bring the Palestinians together. And if they cannot convince Qatar to accept some of the demands, how will they draw red lines for Russia and Iran- Qatar has rightfully earned this boycott by its neighbors, and while it wouldn't hurt to force Qatar to acquiesce on some of their demands, prolonging the conflict does not serve the war on terror, which Qatar has, at most, helped finance, or the struggle against Tehran. This is therefore Washington's task; a first and unexpected test for U.S. President Donald Trump in the Middle East.
