What's next in Syria?

With the collapse of the most recent cease-fire agreement in Syria, fighting has resumed, and even if a new deal is reached to stop the shooting, there is no doubt that it too, will crumble like its predecessor. Evidently the warring parties in Syria still have the strength to continue fighting. It also appears they still have resolve and faith in their victory; and no less important, international support and generous aid -- financial and military -- which allows them to carry on fighting to the very end.

Regardless, we can assume that after the efforts to stop the fighting and open peace talks ended in colossal failure, the Obama administration will come to understand what most of the world has understood for quite some time now -- that the war in Syria does not, has not and will not have a diplomatic solution. The conflict in that unfortunate country will be decided on the battlefield and will end only when one side wipes out the other, in all likelihood along with the civilians who support it.

Throughout the six years of fighting, the "experts on the matter" have on more than one occasion predicted the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad. However, every time the end appeared near for the Syrian tyrant, the situation would take a surprising turn to give him more oxygen and a chance to remain in power.

The truth is that the Syrian regime is exhausted after nearly six years of fighting, and has few remaining soldiers it can still throw into the cauldron. The rebels, on the other hand, enjoy the support of the local population in the battle zones, and like locusts they descend time and again on the regime's forces and hit them, if not completely destroy them.

The rebels, however, are also fatigued, as is the population that supports them. They have failed repeatedly to unify their ranks and produce a diplomatic and military leadership, while the Islamic radicalization they have undergone has alienated many of their supporters in Syria and abroad. It is also important to understand that the war in Syria is essentially an assortment of dozens if not hundreds of separate battles in areas across the country that are cut off from one another, in which hundreds of rebels fight hundreds of Assad's soldiers. This is why a few Russian jets and several dozen or hundred Iranian troops are enough to defeat or beat back the rebel forces.

Every attempt to predict how events would unfold in Syria has thus far failed, and is destined to fail in the future as well. And yet, one cannot deny Russia and Iran's unbridled determination to preserve Assad in power. One also cannot deny the rebels' exhaustion, and moreover the exhaustion of the population supporting them, nor ignore the decision made some time ago by U.S. President Barack Obama to step away from the Syrian arena.

The Syrian state headed by Assad has not collapsed, even if it has dwindled to one quarter of the country's territory -- which, incidentally, is home to most of the population that still remains in the country. Assad's Alawite tribe is not alone in its willingness to live under his rule, there are other ethnicities as well, including Sunnis who seek calm and stability. Meanwhile, the areas under rebel control are characterized by chaos and anarchy and the rebels have been unable to establish any sort of alternative governance to that of the Syrian regime.

It is possible, therefore, to estimate with all due caution that the fighting in Syria will persist for a long time to come, and will have its ups and downs. But if the trend from the past year continues, the rebels will be relegated to the margins and will lose any chance of emerging victorious. The Kurds will also be marginalized -- through Turkish and international pressure -- and pushed back into the Syrian state. Islamic State, too, will also be forced back, deep into the Syrian and Iraqi desert. In this situation, the Syrian regime will slowly be able to regain the territory it lost.

This is the optimistic scenario from Assad's perspective -- and it is also entirely uncertain to occur. In any case, such a process would require years to unfold before a state-like Syrian entity would, if at all, be able stand on its own feet. And yet, Assad, who has been eulogized so many times in recent years, is looking like the big winner and ultimate survivor from this war, and this week he took another important step in that direction.

טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו