Without comparing notes in advance, former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, and a few hours later, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, declared an all-out political war on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership. Netanyahu's response came quickly. He claimed that they were acting out of personal motives. I have been around the block and I have seen many candidates like the pair that prophesied at the Herzliya conference on Thursday, and the results were not uniform. There were speeches that set fire to parties, causing rifts and tears. The two that stick out are the establishment of the Rafi Party by Israel's first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, and Kadima under late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's leadership. There were also stirring speeches like these ones that ended with nothing more than a whimper -- with the establishment of a sort of surplus-faction that lasts for a term or two, and the initiators then either stepping down from the political stage or returning to their original home party. Kadima also played a major role in this side of the equation, as did former Minister David Levy's Gesher faction before it. No one knows where it will lead. On Thursday, Barack refused to address the possibility that he would return to the political arena. He claimed that any interest in his personal matters distracted the public from the difficult, important and near-apocalyptic issues he raised in his speech, wherein he attacked Netanyahu. Why then does he consider the prime minister to be apocalyptic? Ya'alon, for his part, said that he was "undoubtedly" set on fighting for leadership of the country. Ya'alon's departure from Netanyahu will certainly play a major part in the verbal duel expected to take place between them. Many who spoke with Ya'alon during his years in the Defense Ministry heard from his own mouth that he was not the candidate to undermine Netanyahu. But the rift formed. It didn't happen all at once. It began with the struggle over the evacuation of houses in the settlement of Beit El that were under demolition orders from the High Court. Ya'alon began to grumble that Netanyahu did not stand by the rule of law, even if he didn't outright prevent Ya'alon from doing what needed to be done. Since then, their relationship has been on a steep downward slope. This is likely to be one of the most fascinating struggles in the history of Israel's national politics. If Barak doesn't try to make a return to politics, he will still be listened to, as many who may not yet be ready to vote for him hold him in high regard. Ya'alon is threatening the Likud along its central seam, as he intends to draw support from there, rather than from Labor, Meretz, Yesh Atid and Kulanu. Only it will take patience and endurance. The current coalition is 66 Knesset members strong and overturning it with protests and at the ballot boxes (as Barak called for) won't be an easy feat, rather it will be a uphill struggle for even the most experienced fighters. As dramatic as the speeches were on Thursday, they were only the sounds of the starting gun.
