This past month has been a political whirlwind. Despite statements to the contrary by all parties involved, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ushered Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman into his government, and Zionist Union leader Isaac Herzog, who only two weeks ago solemnly announced the door had closed on his party's negotiations with Likud, is now willing to reconsider. The political dust is far from settling, and the tumultuous circumstances make it hard to predict what the outcome might be. Various "associates" have repeatedly suggested Netanyahu has not forgiven Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett for their last skirmish and that the prime minister will not hesitate to expel Bennett from the government if a worthy replacement is found. It was this that prompted Netanyahu to explore whether Hatnuah leader Tzipi Livni could guarantee his coalition stability. Livni has not ruled out joining the coalition under certain circumstances, but that is not a move she will pursue without Herzog and his party. Herzog, and to an extent his vocal rival within Labor MK Shelly Yachimovich, is willing to consider a coalition deal if Bennett is not part of the coalition and if the Zionist Union receives the justice portfolio. Such a move would be inked under the guise of the regional summit promoted by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, which both Netanyahu and Herzog prefer over the French initiative. Bennett, on his part, made it clear in an interview with Channel 2's "Meet the Press" on Saturday that as long as the peace talks are just that -- "talks" -- he will remain in the government, adding that he will not allow for any concessions to the Palestinians. Reading between the lines of his well-crafted words, one can easily understand that the rift between Netanyahu and Bennett is nowhere near mending. If anything, it is growing wider. Against this backdrop, Herzog insists that he has not been approached again. Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon, who is sparing no effort to facilitate a coalition deal with Zionist Union, knows negotiations have yet to be renewed, but he seems to remain convinced that conditions are favorable. These complex and contradictory circumstances reflect the fact that the basic mood has remained unchanged since the secret Likud-Zionist Union negotiations began. The will to strike a deal is there, but the way may be obstructed by boisterous opposition within each party. Ultimately, in this political lottery, the chances of the Zionist Union joining the coalition are only slightly higher than it passing on the opportunity.
