America's Assad fantasy

The four-year anniversary of the bloody civil war in Syria passed recently. Only a small number of Syrians, however, actually took the time to mark the day. The revolution, which sparked immense hope for change, was hijacked long ago by radical Islamist groups on one side, and Hezbollah fighters alongside Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops on the other.

The revolution has devolved into a civilian and jihadist war that has claimed upward of 300,000 Syrian lives. Half of Syria's residents, some 10 million people, have lost their homes in the fighting, and about 4 million of them have escaped to neighboring countries.

This tragedy was not forced on the Syrians by a particular group such as Islamic State or any other jihadist organization inside the country, but by Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime, which is waging an all-out war of survival against its opponents and against the civilian population supporting them.

Within this framework, Assad has used chemical weapons against his countrymen. After being caught red-handed, however, he now makes do with advanced missiles and heavy artillery, and dropping crude oil and chlorine-filled barrel bombs from planes. Above all else, he has implemented a policy of methodical and targeted starvation against towns and villages known to support the rebels.

Assad's calculations, however, have apparently not been misguided. Adding fuel to the fire and igniting a gigantic conflagration has led to Syria's disintegration and to the obliteration of nearly three-fourths of the country's economic infrastructure -- roads, electric and water lines, education and health institutions, factories and more -- but at the same time has allowed him to eliminate the moderate camp which merely sought change and certain reforms. By doing so, however, he paved the path for the jihadists, who today are leading the war against him and completely control the rebel camp.

The disjointed rebel camp has failed to join ranks and produce an effective diplomatic and military leadership to lead the revolution and serve as a counterweight to Islamic State and al-Qaida supporters in Syria. It also lacks any real support from outside the country. In contrast to Assad, who enjoys the backing of Russia and primarily Iran, as well as Hezbollah, the only outside help the rebels have is from countries like Qatar and Turkey, who more than wanting to see the revolution succeed have sought to enhance the influence and strength of the Islamist forces which support their goals inside Syria.

Sprouting from the ruins of Syria is the Islamic State in the east, a Kurdish autonomy in the north, an Islamist rebel enclave in the south and center, and finally an Assad state in the west, stretching from Damascus up to Aleppo and back toward the Mediterranean coast, populated mostly by Assad's fellow Alawite clansmen.

Amid this backdrop, about a week ago CIA chief John Brennan declared that toppling the Assad regime would open the door for extremist terrorist organizations like Islamic State and al-Qaida to take control, and that everything must be done to prevent that from happening. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reiterated the notion by saying that Washington was not opposed to dialogue with Assad, effectively implying that he could remain in power in Damascus.

Indeed similar to Iraq, where Washington has essentially partnered with Iran to stop Islamic State -- even at the cost of bolstering Iran's status in the country -- some Obama administration officials are apparently toying with the idea of calling on Iran for help in Syria, as well. This means, in essence, partnering with Hezbollah to ensure the survival of the Assad regime, for it to serve as a buffer against the spread of Islamic State.

The fighting in Syria will continue well into the future, because none of the warring parties have the ability to deliver a decisive blow. Meanwhile, those in Washington who believe that helping Assad and linking up with Iran -- even if only tactically -- will garner the U.S. gratitude and new friends in the region, need to take into account that a victory for Assad, Iran and Hezbollah will only buttress the anti-American and anti-Israeli axis in the region and encourage its members to return to their pre-Syrian revolution path of incitement and resistance against the U.S. and Israel. After all, Assad is the root of the problem in Syria, not part of the solution.

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