Between optimism and pessimism
The Israeli-Palestinian negotiations did not completely die out when everyone was rushing to eulogize them, and no one is putting on their evening finery now they've read they are coming back to life. Great tension has characterized the latest stages of the talks about talks, and bad diplomatic blood has been spilled unnecessarily.
The latest details have yet to be ironed out. Even if the negotiating teams reached an understanding, it does not mean it will be approved in Jerusalem and Ramallah.
At the last minute, the crisis will rear its head again. Nevertheless, it appears to some of the negotiating teams that the chance of a deal is greater than the chance of a total cut-off.
It is impossible to know what Israel's position is. In the most recent round of talks, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman promised to let his ministers vote their conscience since Jonathan Pollard was included in the deal. Pollard's release is an ace up the sleeve. But later, Lieberman announced that since Israeli Arabs would be included in a prisoner release, he would not accept U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's outline. Both these points are currently part of the working draft -- what will take precedence in Lieberman's priorities? I believe he will let his ministers vote as they see fit and the vote will be split.
Members of Habayit Hayehudi will hesitate. Pollard is a big incentive, but a significant settlement freeze is nearly impossible. On one hand, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will announce that Habayit Hayehudi's threat to leave the coalition, as party chairman Naftali Bennett announced close to midnight it would do if Israeli Arab terrorists were freed as part of the deal, includes some of Netanyahu's Likud ministers and all of their deputies. On the other hand -- what other option is there?
In the last round, Deputy Foreign Minister Zeev Elkin (Likud) bridged the gap between Netanyahu and Habayit Hayehudi and made it clear to the prime minister that he would resign if Israeli Arab terrorists were released. Last night Netanyahu decided -- genuinely or tactically -- to push away the impression that an agreement had already been reached. He published a list of steps meant to pressure the Palestinians not only into renewing the talks, but also under conditions that are his bottom line. In other words, cancelling their request to join international organizations.
No doubt this situation is embarrassing for the government. Mainly because PA President Mahmoud Abbas will not take back his appeals for recognition by international bodies. This is Israel's casus belli, the true red line -- but can the Palestinians retreat?
Thursday night was long and changeful. There was a lot of optimism and a lot of pessimism, which switched every few hours. As far as Israel is concerned, the difficulties aren't uniform -- those for whom a certain freeze on settlement construction is the main point can accept the release of an additional few hundred prisoners, but even they refuse to see Israeli Arab terrorists go free, a move that would in effect grant the Palestinian Authority status as the representative of Arabs who hold an Israeli ID card.
The decision cannot be delayed for much longer. The coalition will not want it to, and neither will the Palestinians or the Americans. In Washington, they know that the long wait is the biggest enemy of the future agreement. But Israel is about to celebrate Passover, the holiday of freedom, and many tough questions beyond the traditional four of the Seder will be asked.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו