The working assumption of Israeli security officials was that the terror attacks in Tbilisi and New Delhi on Monday were just the beginning of a larger wave. The incidents in India and Georgia were part of a larger plan, multi-faceted, multi-continental, and aimed at accomplishing three things for Hezbollah and Iran: revenge (late and partial) for the assassination of Hezbollah military commander Imad Mughniyeh; revenge (small and disproportionate) for the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists, and deterrence. Its doubtful that Monday's events satisfied the desires of the attacks plotters in Beirut and Tehran. The wife of an Israeli Defense Ministry representative in India who was moderately wounded and a neutralized bomb certainly dont equate to the string of assassinations attributed to Israel. The Overseas Operations Wing" of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, in coordination with Hezbollahs chief military figure and Mughniyeh's deputy Talal Hamiya, will certainly continue searching for other targets. It is enough to map out Hamiyas attempted attacks over the last few years to be concerned about the level of audacity and reach of Iran and its proxies: from Thailand to Georgia, from Azerbaijan to India, from Turkey to deep in the jungles of South America. We havent even mentioned the Sinai Peninsula yet, or Greece with its own financial problems, concerned about an attack at one of its tourist sites that would devastate the only branch of its economy that brings money into the countrys dwindling coffers. Israel was successful in blocking these terror attacks, until Monday that is. Since Mugniyehs assassination four years ago, all attempts to harm Israel and Israelis across the globe have been thwarted. Foreign media outlets attributed the success to the Mossad, allegedly working with the help of local intelligence agencies. We can assume that the string of failed terror plots led to great frustration within Hezbollah, but also to increasing motivation to carry out an immediate attack to prove to Israel that it is not all-powerful, and to prove to Hezbollah's constituents that they arent destined for eternal failure. Pressured to carry out a successful attack at all cost, Hezbollah chose light-value targets: the unguarded wife of a Defense Ministry representative in New Delhi, and a local official, not an Israeli, in Tbilisi. Israeli security officials were sent to investigate the attack sites, mainly to learn how the attacks were carried out. In both cases the cars targeted were parked adjacent to the Israeli embassies (in Georgia, in an outdoor, public lot; in Delhi, underground and guarded). It is now crucial to figure out who reached the vehicles and how. Was it, as has been claimed in India, assailants on a motorbike who attached a bomb to the car similar to the method employed in the assassinations of Iranian scientists or was it a different method with different explosives? An initial inquiry has found the bombs to be relatively simple, both in their construction and in their detonation. It is unlikely that the identities of the attackers, or who sent them, can be gleaned from the information immediately available. Israeli security officials believe that the attackers refrained from bigger targets in order to avoid an aggressive Israeli response. Since Mugniyeh's death, Hezbollah has debated the nature and extent of what its response should be, mainly out of concern that too big an attack (taking down a plane or demolishing a populated embassy) would lead Israel to a disproportionate reaction, such as, perhaps, starting another war in Lebanon. Still, some security officials believe that despite its concerns about an Israeli overreaction, Hezbollah chose targets that were simply available (ambassadors are protected and special envoys were instructed to avoid using their cars unnecessarily), and nothing can be gleaned about Hezbollah's next steps from Monday's attacks. In other words: the Mugniyeh file and the files of the Iranian scientists are still open as far as Iran and Hezbollah are concerned. The moment they have the opportunity to kill a senior Israeli official, past or present, a military and intelligence officer or diplomat, or even to hit a group of tourists, its doubtful that someone in Tehran or Beirut will shy away from giving the green light. This evaluation led security officials on Monday to order unprecedented security measures to be taken at virtually all Israeli embassies around the world. At a meeting led by Z, the head of the Protective Security Department at Israels Security Agency, and A, the head of the Foreign Ministrys security department, it was decided to order all Israels official envoys across the globe to refrain in coming days from driving their cars, until they can be checked for possible booby traps and cleared. To avoid causing panic, it was decided (not without hesitation) to open all embassies and consulates, albeit on a limited basis, and to limit the amount of work outside embassy walls. The measures were designed based on specific threat levels in each country. But even if the wave of terror is thwarted and we return to calm, tensions beneath the surface will continue to bubble. The secret war against Irans nuclear weapons project, attributed to Israel, will require a higher level of preventative security and deterrent measures, as well as international coordination. Iran is the direction toward which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman were quick to point, where all the strings lead until they form one giant pile. Even if Netanyahu and Lieberman's comments were made without actual evidence, the goal is clear: focus the fire on Iran, as a new, especially tense year begins in which any incident can potentially ignite a conflagration. IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz is surely aware of this as he marks the one-year anniversary of his appointment with a sense of deja vu that disaster will issue forth from the north.
