Restore calm to southern Israel

The most common clich in the Israel Defense Forces states that every rocket fired from the Gaza Strip at Israel brings us one step closer to the next extensive armed conflict. That may be more substantively than factually true in most cases, as every day takes us further away from the lull and toward escalation, even if the event in question does not solely have the potential to cause a security deterioration.

Wednesday's rocket salvo meets both aspects of this clich . Unlike previous attacks, when Israel and the Palestinians -- sometime in the future -- find themselves embroiled in the next round of fighting, this barrage will be remembered as a major part of the security deterioration, as it was the first time since 2012's Operation Pillar of Defense that a Palestinian terror group -- in this case the Islamic Jihad -- fired dozens of rockets at the western Negev in gross violation of the lull.

This salvo was the result of a tactical incident: the killing of an Islamic Jihad terror cell, which followed routine clashes in the IDF's designated security perimeter, just west of the border, where the Israeli military tirelessly works to thwart terror activities.

Despite its desire for revenge, the Islamic Jihad made sure to mount the kind of response that would not lead to an all-out escalation, firing only short-range rockets at the communities near the Israel-Gaza Strip border and refraining from targeting any of the larger cities. Then again, by Thursday, sirens were heard in Ashkelon and Ashdod as well.

The Islamic Jihad has breached all the understandings reached and maintained in the 16 months since Operation Pillar of Defense. The extensive Israeli response was meant to make it clear to the Palestinians that they had crossed a line, as well as to illustrate the toll continued fighting may take on them. At the end of this faceoff, however, Israel will have to explore whether this was a symptom of the continuous erosion in the lull that would inevitably end the calm achieved following Operation Pillar of Defense, and whether another wide-scale military campaign is due.

This kind of erosion has several possible reasons: Hamas has been struggling to enforce its rule over Gaza Strip and the Islamic Jihad is constantly challenging it, especially militarily. Defense officials are trying to establish whether Hamas was aware of the Islamic Jihad's plans, and even if they conclude that Hamas was caught off guard, Israel will still hold it accountable, to force it to enforce its sovereignty over Gaza Strip.

The Islamic Jihad is not without its problems. Many of its operatives -- increasingly disgruntled over the fact that the group refrains for mounting a more intensive fight -- have defected to the more militant groups and some are now members of the global jihad. The Islamic Jihad is also frustrated by the Israeli interception of the Gaza-bound Klos C and the seizure of the weapons shipment it was carrying, and by the news suggesting Iran and Hamas are slowly renewing their ties. Should the latter happens, it will hurt the Islamic Jihad both financially and operationally, so it has a vested interest in proving it is still alive and kicking.

The search for a clear motive and the attempt to influence it should not affect the Israeli response. Since Operation Pillar of Defense, Israel has maintained a clear-cut policy stating any fire will meet a harsh response, meant to punish and deter. A new objective has been introduced to this equation recently -- to deny both Hamas and Islamic Jihad any military assets.

Egypt's place in the Israel-Gaza Strip equation is also taken into consideration. While in the past Cairo was the primary mediator between the parties, the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood's regime has made Egypt Hamas' enemy, and last week Cairo even outlawed Hamas.

In the short run Israel can benefit from this change, which includes an Egyptian crackdown on arms smuggling and razing tunnels along the Philadelphi Route, in the long run, the waning of the Egyptian mediation mechanism may force the Gaza-based terror groups into a corner -- and into action.

Neither side is interested in a security escalation, but Wednesday saw yet another line leading up to it crossed: The Gaza Strip is falling apart and it is taking the cease-fire agreement with down with it. The process is evident and Israel is currently focusing its efforts on slowing it down as much as possible to restore peace and quiet to the south.

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