Achievements and failures
Politics hovers around the edges of the Shalit deal, on both sides of the fence.
Both Israeli and Palestinian publics watched as their leaders backed down from red lines which they themselves had drawn, but that has not necessarily led many to think any less of their political leaders.
Benjamin Netanyahu has reaped significant political benefit, as perhaps has Ehud Barak. On the Palestinian side, the division of the political spoils was more complex. Hamas gained strength in the areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority. In defiance of PA President Mahmoud Abbas' orders, Hamas flags were waved on Tuesday in many a celebration.
Get the Israel Hayom newsletter sent to your mailbox!
The deal has also allowed Hamas to make inroads with Israeli Arabs. By forcing Israel to release prisoners who hold Israeli citizenship, Hamas became their patron.
Only in Gaza has Hamas failed. The masses came out to the rallies it organized, where the leaders attempted to incite them, but the masses reacted coolly. Ismail Haniyeh's shouts of "Allahu akbar" did not resonate, mainly because Netanyahu remained steadfast in his refusal to release senior Hamas killers. Hamas' leadership in Gaza and Damascus was forced to compromise, and this left the crowds feeling disappointed.
The Shalit prisoner swap agreement contains two worrying possibilities: improved relations between Egypt and Hamas, and the serious concern that Egypt will now renew its efforts to bring about a reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
These achievements and failures on the part of central actors on the Israeli and Palestinian sides have a certain value. They are valid, but politics is a constant and ongoing battle, and any achievement is nothing more than a good way to jockey for a better opening position in the next round.
The nature of that next round is unclear. Former Mossad head Efraim Halevy has expressed the hope that the Shalit deal would lead to negotiations between Israel and Hamas on essential issues. Israel has never agreed to do this, but already did it in practice, culminating in Tuesday's release. Hamas leaders Khaled Mashaal and Ismail Haniyeh, however, have not shown signs of flexibility. On the contrary. They are familiar with the Israeli spirit, they said, and are eager to keep their fingers on the trigger.
Let us not be deluded into thinking otherwise.
Like our newsletter? 'Like' our Facebook page!
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו