Although this past weekend gave the security establishment many reasons to be optimistic, the bottom line remains the same. Over time, without negotiations for peace, Israel's security risks will increase and there will be less room to maneuver, both militarily and diplomatically. On the tactical-operational plane, the last few days have been positive for Israel. Early prognoses were correct and the Palestinians were not in fact motivated enough to instigate widespread commotion. With the few incidents that did take place, security forces acted with restraint. With the exception of events in Qusra, we mostly avoided hazards that could have fomented unrest. More important than all this was the close coordination with Palestinian security forces, proving that there is, at least from a security point of view, a partner east of the security fence. Senior Israel Defense Forces officials gave them a grade of A+ on Saturday night. The Palestinians kept their word and upheld every agreement and promise. Indeed they did so for their own reasons: a fear of losing control, the desire to show that they have the ability to run a country and instill law and order. Nevertheless, the bottom line is clear. For the first time since the Oslo Accords they have acted in a trustworthy manner. The problem is that it is not clear how long this situation will last. When, and if, the Palestinian people rise up; when, and if, their leadership decides to encourage them to be more active; when, and if, a provocation occurs that leads to escalation. It could take weeks, perhaps months, but defense officials all share the same opinion: In the absence of diplomatic hope, a military confrontation is a matter of time. From this perspective, the speeches at the U.N. left behind a bittersweet taste: Each side scored points for their position, but left little room for hope. Amid the fervent preoccupation with the Palestinian issue, another central issue was pushed aside: that of Iran's nuclear program. In his speech, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned about Iran's nuclear program and hinted that a lack of international action may lead Israel to have to defend itself. We can assume that during U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta's visit next week this will be a central issue for discussion. The U.S. wants to make sure that Israel will not go crazy. Jerusalem may be asked to make a painful deal: The U.S. thwarts the Palestinian state at the U.N. and in exchange Israel revokes any plan to attack Iran.
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