At the end of 1955, a huge (in those days) arms deal was concluded between Egypt and Czechoslovakia, which served at that time as a puppet state for the Soviet Union. For their part, the Egyptians received 150 advanced MIG 15 fighter planes. Israel had nothing with which to counter the deal, especially since the Egyptians also received 50 long-range bombers, 70 transport planes, and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles. Egypt paid a small sum for the military hardware, if it paid anything at all, and the deal was one of the reasons the U.S. retracted its intention to loan the Egyptians money to pay for the construction of the Aswan Dam, an embankment dam situated across the Nile River. In response to the Americans reneging on the loan, then Egyptian President, Gamal Nasser, nationalized the Suez Canal, an act that lead to a British and French military take-over of the canal, and Israel's control of the Sinai Peninsula. The Soviets brought Egypt over to their side permanently when they provided around $330 million to complete the Aswan Dam and appropriate the land around it. Why am I recalling the 1955 arms deal? Because after almost severing ties with Israel completely, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan is marching now directly into areas that are quite dangerous for us. There is a reasonable chance that Erdogan may try to emulate the Soviet move, and that his upcoming visit to Egypt is only the first step in his plan to bring Egypt over to his side. Erdogan may offer Egypt a deal if Egypt abrogates its peace agreement with Israel and once again joins the list of countries belligerent to Israel. Turkey may offer to compensate Egypt for the losses it would incur if it abandoned the peace treaty with Israel, including American economic and military aid. It should be noted, however, that Turkey's economy may be able to withstand such losses. Former National Security Advisor, Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, said last week that in his opinion Israel needs to wake up and prepare for a possible cancellation of the peace treaty with Egypt within the next few years. According to Eiland, if that happens, all the funds set aside for solutions to the social justice protests would be diverted to the crisis that would ensue with Egypt. If Erdogan's dangerous plans become reality, we will need to take necessary measures to counteract them immediately. Erdogan is showing every sign of working to weaken Israel. However, Israel is not the only target of his threats - Syria too seems to be in his cross hairs. His actions may indicate a desire to possess the natural gas discovered throughout the Middle East as well. And why would he want natural gas? Because control of the gas would help Erdogan become the undisputed leader of the Sunni-Muslim world. If that is the way events indeed develop, they will be the backdrop to the great unavoidable war of "Gog and Magog [Armageddon]," between Turkey on the one hand, and its competitor and leader of the Shiite-Muslim world, Iran. Since the end of the Yom Kippur War, we have never faced such a security-related threat as we now face from the north and east. Our leaders need to assess our strategic risks and prepare for these scenarios, even as they hope they won't materialize. To face the dangers ahead, we need to employ all of our economic and scientific resources. And what our leadership must not do, is to treat our national security and defense-related budget as they have in the past 34 years. This holds true even if Professor Trajtenberg arrives at different conclusions, and even if our prime minister is committed to accepting the Trajtenberg Committee's conclusions.
