Forty-two years ago, when I was just starting out as a diplomatic writer for Ha'aretz, I quoted an unnamed senior Foreign Ministry official who said Moammar Gadhafi's coup against King Idres might benefit Israel. The next morning I got a call from the director-general of the Prime Minister's Office, Dr. Yaacov Herzog. "What idiot told you that-" he asked. I did not reveal the diplomat's identity, but time has proven that he was indeed an idiot. Back then, a popular view held that every time an Arab government convulsed (except for that of Jordan), it was good for Israel. Within a year, Gamal Abdel Nasser collapsed of a heart attack and members of Golda Meir's government were jubilant. Not everyone, mind you. A few people wondered if his sudden death was in fact good for Israel. Nasser carried the traumatic scars of the 1948, 1956 and 1967 wars -- he knew what challenging Israel could bring. What if his successor lacked those scars? Turmoil in Egypt, the vicissitudes of its relationship with the Soviet Union and its growing friendship with the U.S. all made our radar on Tripoli weaker. Gadhafi was dangerous, we thought, but not to the Jewish state. His clown-like appearance on the world stage led many to dismiss him as a diplomatic lightweight. As a result, Israel knew nothing about the dangerous nuclear program he developed right under the world's nose until the U.S. and Britain took it away from him. When experts are asked how he will be remembered in the history of his country, which is more of a land than a nation and more oil and tribes than a cultural entity, they issue responses like yes, no, and maybe. Historians will continue to argue over the contributions Gadhafi made and the damage he did. At the moment, it is clear that the coup in Libya has ousted a tyrannical dictator who provoked rage and ultimately hatred. The occupation of his compound has, for now, inspired flag-waving and uplifted spirits. But what unknown forces lie behind the revelers? Who urged them to topple Gadhafi? How do we explain France's fervor? Can Italy's motivation be summed up by oil? What secret lies behind Turkey's intervention, low-profile at first, but now revealed to involve massive financial support? And most importantly, what role will al-Qaida and Islamic jihad play in the new Libya? There are romantic leftists like MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz) whom the "Arab Spring" fills with hope and inspiration. It's his prerogative to think that way, but there is still no basis for optimism. On the contrary, the spring is starting to resemble a typhoon or a tsunami, one that is very problematic in terms of democracy and human rights. Those who support change in Arab countries, which seem to be growing closer to al-Qaida and Islamic jihad, should take heed of a fable of Krylov. A donkey constantly complains about the heavy burden of work his owner forces on him, until one day that owner gets tired of the donkey and sells him to an animal skinner in the market. This may be what is in store for Libya, as well as Egypt, Algeria, Yemen and soon Syria. Let us hope otherwise. But there is no reason to celebrate.
