Erdogan takes a hit from home

The big question in Turkey today is whether the massive corruption scandal currently rocking the country will reach the top of the power chain, all the way up to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On Wednesday, Environment and Urban Planning Minister Erdogan Bayraktar became the third minister to step down (along with Interior Minister Muammer Guler and Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan), while calling on the prime minister to do the same in a dramatic televised address.

According to Bayraktar, if indeed he did do anything illegal, then Erdogan knew about it. In other words, the prime minister was his partner in crime. Erdogan's problem is that this time, the "plot" to which he fell victim was not the handiwork of the secular opposition, but rather that of his Islamic partners at home. This is more dangerous and more painful.

Naturally, Erdogan is on the defensive: From his perspective, there is a direct connection between the attack on his government and the municipal elections scheduled for March and the June 2014 presidential elections. This conspiracy against him is meant to topple his Justice and Development Party in the elections.

There is no doubt Erdogan now faces a new problem. Until today he could always put the blame on the opposition and the army and depend upon the support of Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic preacher living in the U.S. whose religious movement helped put Erdogan in office. This movement has deep ties to the police. It is not surprising that we have seen a wave of dismissals recently among the upper echelons of Turkey's police force.

Erdogan believes that Gulen's movement is responsible for the conspiracy seeking to destroy all of his government's economic achievements. Erdogan claims the fall of his government will also lead to the collapse of the Turkish economy. He understands what is important on the street -- and this includes the religious street. Last June the government's plan to raze Gezi Park sparked a large wave of protests, which evolved into a widespread protest against Erdogan's authoritarian-Islamist regime. This time, Erdogan's problem is more serious, because his detractors come from his own base.

The municipal elections set for March 30 are undoubtedly crucial for Erdogan, because he hopes to parlay them into a successful presidential election in the summer of 2014. Even though he still has not declared his candidacy, his intentions are well known in Turkey. Gulen, as stated, has a great deal of influence with the police and the Turkish legal system, and at least for this reason, Erdogan needs to be concerned.

Gulen, who helped Erdogan win three elections already, also has the power to bring him down. Erdogan should understand more than anyone that it is possible to get along (if only by force) with secular proponents, but that things are a bit more problematic when it comes to the Islamists.

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