The main battle is still ahead of us
Unwisely, U.S. President Barack Obama recently called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as Israel was fuming over the Iran deal. The conversation did not just result in overwhelming disappointment. On the contrary, an Israeli delegation is headed to the U.S. to discuss future cooperative measures. A wise man once said, "A gentle answer turns away wrath."
This Iran deal is a bad deal, but Israel has no better ally than the U.S. The agreement is shoddy, but Netanyahu's pressure over the past few weeks proved beneficial on several fronts. For example, Iran agreed to shut down its reactor for plutonium production and scale back its enrichment program.
Still, two jarring elements undermine the Iran deal. First, Iran has to grant access to international inspectors and organizations for the first six months. The main concern here is that the most basic elements of the agreement will not be realized. The second concern is that not enough progress will be made to keep Iran from reaching the threshold where making a nuclear bomb quickly is possible.
Israel's stance toward Iran underwent two phases over the past decade. Originally, then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and then-Mossad chief Meir Dagan hoped they could deploy delaying tactics to keep Iran from producing a bomb. According to the former Mossad chief, preventing the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear weapon is impossible. Netanyahu raised the bar over Israeli efforts to curb the ayatollah regime's nuclear ambitions. Now, if Netanyahu wants to go back toward square one, he is going to have to demand the maximum -- a totally prohibitive policy -- to keep the Iranians far from the bomb.
Three different paths lie before Israel. Jerusalem can continue to raise objections over the interim deal, toning down its rhetoric while remaining persistent and decisive, especially given how Netanyahu's voice has largely fallen on deaf ears in the U.S., perhaps also throughout all of Western Europe. Or, it could attempt to engage the fundamental Western actors involved in the Iran talks as much as possible; keeping its distance only serves to harm Israeli interests. Lastly, Israel could highlight the fact that the U.S. is wreaking diplomatic havoc, turning some of its most important regional allies, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, into unsettled skeptics.
Concerning the interim deal, the first part included very effective economic sanctions, but the agreement fizzles out with a whimper. The core of the Iranian nuclear struggle remains ahead of Israel and the West, each according to its own capabilities and level of concern.
Israel has decided that the civilized world's diplomatic behavior has been misguided, leading to a dead end at best. But if it turns out when all's said and done that the West was vindicated and its achievements were real, nobody will be happier than Israel to admit that it was wrong.
טעינו? נתקן! אם מצאתם טעות בכתבה, נשמח שתשתפו אותנו