Ahead of the start of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced that Dr. Martin Indyk had been appointed as America's special envoy for the diplomatic process. Indyk is well-versed in the complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and knows every detail and nuance of talks that have taken place over the past two decades.
The Indyk appointment has advantages, but also some negative aspects. Indyk has ties with businessman Haim Saban, who has many business interests in Israel (he is a former owner of the Bezeq telecommunications company) and whose close relationship with the Democratic Party is an open secret. Indyk is a familiar face in diplomatic and media circles in both Israel and the Middle East as a whole, which means doesn't have a clean slate on the issues that will be negotiated over the next nine months.
Those who have read Indyk's book, "Innocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East" or have talked with him know that he has much criticism for past Labor-led Israeli governments. This gives cause for concern that his criticism for the current Likud-led government will be even greater
There is another problem. Indyk had two stints as U.S. ambassador to Israel, serving at the American Embassy in Tel Aviv. Every time Indyk takes a position favorable toward Israel, the Palestinians will accuse him of not being an honest broker, mainly because he is also Jewish. Will Indyk try to calm the Palestinians by taking a more demanding attitude toward Israel? This is possible. And if he doesn't, he will face a barrage of complaints from the Palestinians. Kerry was likely aware of all these issues when he appointed Indyk, but decided that the pros outweighed the cons.
The dinner meeting hosted by Kerry on Monday (which was attended by Israeli negotiators Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Molcho, as well as Palestinian negotiators Saeb Erekat and Mohammed Shtayyeh) was just talks about talks. The two sides renewed talks to please the U.S. Each side has received letters from the American government, the contents of which are known only to them. Starting today, the Israelis and Palestinians will try to cash in, at the expense of each other.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin said on Monday that Plan A for the Palestinians had been to turn to the U.N. and international courts as part of their delegitimization campaign against Israel. But ties with the U.S. are so important to Palestinian leaders in Ramallah that they decided to postpone that step and move to Plan B. Their new plan is to demand from Israel the establishment of a Palestinian state.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Plan A is two states for two peoples, based on his conditions. But there is likely no Palestinian leader willing to accept his conditions. If negotiations reach an impasse, what is Plan B for Netanyahu? When the Palestinians return to their anti-Israel smear campaign, Netanyahu will have two options -- either push for one state for two peoples or make a unilateral move to set the borders of the Jewish state. A unilateral move would entail keeping the main settlement blocs and maintaining a presence of Israel Defense Forces troops in the Jordan Valley. In this scenario, the issue of Jerusalem would remain unresolved.
If neither of those options are taken, the threat of a third intifada would lurk in the darkness.
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