How did the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel plans to release jump from 82 to 104? That decision was made Wednesday night at 3 a.m. The Americans were pressuring Israel to upgrade the prisoner list, and the Palestinians, as they are wont to do, threatened not to come to talks in Washington even though an understanding had already been reached. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered the Palestinian demands versus the possibility that the talks would be deferred, and decided to accept some of the demands.
Earlier, Netanyahu had said at a meeting with ministers who handle diplomatic issues that only 82 prisoners would be released. But the number 104 is not random: If you take the 82 murderous terrorists and add the number of veteran prisoners convicted on criminal charges (not terrorism), the number of prisoners will add up to 104. But the Palestinian Authority didn't threaten to back out of talks just for random criminals. Therefore, the increase in the number of prisoners must be due to the addition of terrorists who are also Israeli citizens.
The announcement that the final decision will be made by a ministerial panel, encompassing Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe (Bogie) Ya'alon, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch and Science Minister Yaakov Peri, was meant to mitigate the news slightly, because agreeing to the Palestinian demand to release Israeli Arabs means recognizing the Palestinian Authority as a legitimate representative of the Israeli Arab public.
In an insider's debate among the ministers, it was argued that former Prime Ministers Menachem Begin, Yitzhak Shamir, Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon all freed terrorists. But the counter-argument was that they did so in exchange for Israeli prisoners, not as a fee in a diplomatic maneuver.
These three facts about the meetings and the changes in Israel's position are reflected in an open letter Netanyahu wrote to Israel's citizens on Saturday. The decision is difficult for him, too. He holds a position that forces him to make decisions that sometimes run contrary to the will of the majority, he wrote. Thus he is suggesting that the resumption of peace talks is so important for Israel (or at least to improve Israel's image in the eyes of the world) that Netanyahu chose the best of a bad lot.
This has been my opinion since U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced that talks would resume. The main justification for the release of Palestinian murderers is the fact that Netanyahu did not succumb to the Palestinians' core demands. He refused to renew talks on the basis of the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders; he rejected resuming talks from the point where they left off during the days of the concessionary Prime Minister Ehud Olmert; and he said no to openly declaring a renewed moratorium on settlement construction during the course of the negotiations.
The last point has remained quite murky, though. On Friday, Haaretz reporter Barak Ravid wrote that Netanyahu had promised the Americans that only 1,000 new housing units would be built in the settlements during the course of the negotiations. The Prime Minister's Office declined to comment on the report. Housing Minister Uri Ariel hasn't gotten a memo limiting the number of houses that can be built, but reality will dictate a 1,000-apartment limit. It is a small number, but the temporary construction slowdown is reasonable, and it falls into line with Israel's refusal to halt construction altogether.
Netanyahu will not have a hard time gaining a majority to support his referendum bill. On Saturday, well into the night, the prime minister had managed to secure the support of 10 of the 22 cabinet members. If Yisrael Beytenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman lets his party members vote as they please (rather than dictating a party line), Aharonovitch and Immigrant Absorption Minister Sofa Landver might join Netanyahu. The moment he secures 12 ministers to support the bill, the momentum will increase his majority. Who will emerge victorious? It is up to political skill.
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