'The next war will be different'

The Israeli homefront is more prepared for war that it is given credit for, but there is still much that needs to be done, outgoing GOC Homefront Command Maj. Gen. Yoel Strick says.

In an exclusive interview with Israel Hayom just after of handing over his responsibilities to Maj. Gen. Tamir Yadai and ahead of taking office as GOC Northern Command, Strick is confident that "the homefront can withstand the next war, and it will afford the military the time it needs to fight. Nevertheless, our job will be to cut the fighting period as short as possible, to minimize its impact on the homefront."

The next war, he warns, "will be different and very challenging. It will disrupt [the economy's operational] continuity significantly, but if we take the right action, we'll persevere."

Q: Israelis are not exactly war-ready. Is the government ready? Local authorities-

"We're not looking to the public for answers -- it can't assess or process whether the next war will see 500 or 1,000 rockets hit Israel. We look to leaders of public opinions. We've made considerable efforts vis-a-vis mayors. On the one hand we urge them to properly prepare, but on the other hand, we don't want to paralyze them. We've done better in some places than others. The issue is the concept of responsibility: We can do a great job, but if the mayor doesn't have a holistic view of the depth of his responsibility, nothing will help."

Q: How do you know the public will back you up and give you time-

"History has proven as much. When has the public ever not given the IDF the time it needed to reach an objective-"

But will this theory stand up to the test of having thousands of rockets launched at Israel? Strick believes it will.

"The homefront will get hit, there's no doubt about that, but most of it won't be accurate, and they [the rockets] will hit open areas, making them ineffective," he said. "But a small number of rockets will be accurate and lethal. Without getting into definitive numbers, I can say that only about 0.9% of what hits Israel will be accurate."

Q: We are still talking about significant damage and quite a few casualties.

"Which is why we have to cut the fighting short, and I think we know how to do that. Fifty days [the duration of the 2014 military campaign in the Gaza Strip] is too long for Israel -- for any Western society that wants things to move along fast and have a decisive result, including a clear image of victory."

The ethos of victory

To deal with the next conflict, the scenarios of which include thousands of rockets being fired on Israel in case of conflict with Hezbollah in the north, and barrages of hundreds of rockets a day in case of conflict with Hamas in the south, the Homefront Command has come up with the Principles of Steadfastness -- a nine-point plan based on the principle of defense, national operational continuity and civilian compliance.

"The first part is fully the IDF's responsibility, especially the Homefront Command, and it includes all defense components, as well as alert, search and rescue, and even public diplomacy, which in wartime falls exclusively to us," Strick explained.

"The rest depend on others, for example, ensuring that power, communications, food supplies and medical attention are continuously available to the public. Someone needs to open regional clinics and make sure they are staffed and protected, and we have to make sure the economy keeps working during a time of emergency. That starts with the government and local authorities, and it goes right down to the individual. That has to happen because it's part of our resilience."

Q: Does it happen-

"We have significantly improved, and I'd rather look at the glass as half full. I'm less assured when it comes to local authorities. I'm concerned that over the past two years, we haven't been able to provide city officials with quality training. I hope we can revolutionize this situation this year."

Q: Will that make a difference-

"Yes. Who the mayor is -- how he reacts when he sees people killed and the city in a crisis for the first time -- has a tremendous impact on an emergency situation. Municipalities have to be able to be independent, and they must be able to rehabilitate themselves while in crisis. I would like to see a situation where if your home is hit, there's an organized state process by which they come to you, fix everything and you can go home. "

Q: And that's not currently the situation-

"It exists, but it has to improve."

Q: Is the public disciplined-

"Israelis deserve a lot of credit, but they will encounter new things in the next war. They'll have to change their state of mind. We won't be able to intercept everything fired at us, and many more rockets will hit the ground. This means the perception that there are air defenses that can hermetically protect the civilian sphere has to change."

Q: Has Iron Dome's success made the public complacent-

"Absolutely. Especially when it comes to a conflict with Hezbollah and with regard to border-adjacent communities. This is why civilian conduct is critical -- to minimize the toll exacted from us."

Q: Are you preparing for mass evacuations-

"We first have to make sure the public understands our instructions. Because the decision between going into a fortified room to going down two floors can make the difference between life and death. Hezbollah has the ability to focus efforts on communities. In that scenario, if you can't maintain minimal operational continuity and you have somewhere you can go -- go."

Q: Are there organized solutions for such situations-

"There's a procedure in Israel, according to which each local authority should be able to care for 4% of its population should it become displaced. Cities are budgeted for this. What does it mean? You'll be housed in a school and you'll get everything you need. It's not a luxury hotel, but it's an emergency time solution.

"Naturally, we strive to evacuate as few residents as possible in a selective process. That means, alerting only the relevant area, having only the residents of a specific area under fire seek shelter -- not the entire city. Make sure factories continue working. I want Intel to remain in Israel after the war is over."

Q: During Operation Protective Edge, Hamas focused on border-adjacent communities, which it recognized as an Israeli vulnerability.

"The enemy will try to surprise us in the next war. Do something shocking, like infiltrate the border, overrun an area and isolate it for a time. This requires us to change our perception, understand we're dealing with something else and prepare for it.

"Civilians shouldn't be where don't absolutely have to be, because there's a huge difference between an empty community and a full one. If a community is under the threat of direct projectile fire or terrorist infiltration, I have no issue ordering an evacuation. This will place fewer civilians at risk, as well as allow the IDF more operational freedom. This will not be a sweeping decision, rather a gradual one, based on security assessments, and that's something we're training for."

Q: What about the ethos of staying put-

"That's part of the victory ethos. We need to win and evacuation is a mean to that end. I would rather the enemy find an empty community -- it will make it easier for the IDF to deal with it. This isn't about ethos -- it's about protecting civilian lives and improving the military's operational effectiveness."

Q: What about the element of perception? Once you evacuate civilians, the enemy will claim victory because you fled.

"The enemy will do that regardless of what we say or do. We have to tell our side of the story. I think the public understands that."

Be prepared

By all estimates, the next war will include extensive damage to infrastructure in Israel. Strick believes some areas will be devoid of power for a period of 24 to 48 hours, and perhaps even more.

"Electricity is critical and it affects everything, so together with the Israel Electric Corporation we're preparing to provide emergency solutions. There are things the public can do too, like get a small generator, and ensure they have some independence in emergencies."

Q: What other critical infrastructures would likely be compromised-

"Communication is critical, and I assume it would be disrupted for extended periods of time. But we won't see problems regarding water, food or medical care. At the end of the day, when the health care system implements the necessary contingencies, it will have thousands of beds to offer treatment to anyone who needs it."

Q: What concerns you with this regard-

"People with special needs, who you can't move to a shelter. Civil compliance with regard to public and mass gatherings. People who don't listen to instructions and get hurt."

Q: You're not worried that buildings will collapse in Tel Aviv-

"Buildings won't collapse. They may sustain significant hits, we may have fatalities, but we won't see numerous buildings collapse."

Q: Not even when hit by a 750-kilogram (1,700-pound) missile?

"That's not going to happen, and I say that based on assessments by the biggest experts in Israel. We have solid construction, and with fortified rooms and stairwells, we have decent protection."

Q: What are the fortification disparities in the bigger cities-

"In Haifa, for example, only 60% [of residents] have satisfactory protection. In Tel Aviv, disruption [to public routine] would be smaller. True, they [the missiles] will be heavier and more problematic, but the majority will be intercepted, and they [Hezbollah] don't have the same number of long-range missiles as the ones they do fire on Acre or Carmiel."

Q: What about an earthquake scenario? Statistically, once every 100 years a major quake hits the region.

"That's a more complicated scenario, an extreme-case scenario."

Q: Are we ready for a major earthquake-

"In these cases, the initial response is always based on local forces, meaning municipal officials and civilians who are the first to arrive at the scene."

Q: What do we need to address most urgently-

"We have to systemically accelerate the process of reinforcing structures in Israel. The difference between a building from the 1950s or 1970s experiencing an earthquake and a reinforced building is 50 to 100 trapped civilians and dozens of casualties.

"The second thing is transferring responsibility faster: Currently, the Israel Police has command of such events and the IDF only assists. I think the IDF has to be in command of such events. The police has made tremendous progress over the past year, but still -- the IDF is an apparatus that trains, has personnel, equipment and resources, as well as logistic, aerial and intelligence capabilities on a different level."

'Meeting objectives has its price'

In Israel's previous wars, the military fought on the front line and the homefront supported the troops. Hezbollah and Hamas' focus on the homefront, with the understanding that is the Israeli vulnerability that offsets the IDF's absolute operational advantage, threatens to turn this balance on its head, leading to a situation where the next war will see the homefront bear the brunt of it.

Strick believes Israeli society can rise to the challenge.

"Yes, this will be a completely different challenge than we've ever known, but I think the front line will be more complex, and it will exact a much heavier toll [on the IDF] than it will on the homefront. You have to remember that Israeli society finds it more difficult to deal with this issue of wounded soldiers than with civilians casualties, but if you want to meet the objectives of war and win -- be it in Gaza or in Lebanon -- there's a price to pay, and sometimes it's more significant that the extent of casualties on the homefront."

Q: What about the public's anxiety over the terror tunnels-

"I don't want to get into the operational aspects of this issue, but in terms of the homefront, we've dealt with the relevant spheres and we know how to instruct the public in real time in the event of an infiltration."

Q: This is essentially a psychological threat, dealing with the unknown.

"It's a considerable challenge, and I can't give you a definitive answer. But I think we lost sight of things. We took something that is no more than a tactical-operational threat and turned it into a strategic threat to Israel.

"You have to remember, soldiers and civilians were killed in cross-border infiltrations before the tunnels were ever an issue. You have to properly frame this threat and keep things in proportion: If we say it's an existential threat, it will paralyze the political echelon and prevent us from properly dealing with it."

Q: But it's still a threat.

"Absolutely, even a serious one," Strick said. "But the IDF is doing everything within its power to deal with it from defensive, offensive and technological standpoints. At the end of the day, say [a terrorist attack using] a tunnel succeeds. God forbid, 15 or 20 people will be killed. That's by no means a good thing, but will its bring Israel to its knees? The answer is, categorically no."

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